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Former Obama advisor: Donald Trump could end up very badly, is rushing to close a deal with Iran

2026-04-19 23:04:08Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Trump is feeling the pressure from public pressure and the price of oil and is looking for a quick way out. Perhaps very soon, if what the Wall Street Journal wrote is true, that he urgently wants to close a deal with Tehran.

"The Iranians know full well that Trump is in trouble," Charles Kupchan, a former Obama adviser and professor of international relations at Georgetown University, told Corriere della Sera.

“The tide has turned against him. Trump thought the regime would collapse in a matter of days and that he would go down in history as the only president to defeat Iran. Instead, he has fueled the greatest energy crisis of our time, broken his promise not to get into long wars, and worsened the cost of living. He feels trapped and wants a deal as soon as possible, before the midterm elections are so close.

What kind of deal does he want?

“One that allows him to say he has eliminated the threat that prompted him to declare war.”

So, nuclear energy?

“Trump may now be hoping to achieve something on enriched uranium and is aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, it must be said that, before and during the conflict, he changed his story many times about what the real threat was that prompted him to act. The issue of the Iranian missile program and the ayatollahs’ support for militias in the Middle East remains. For that, I fear the chances of achieving a better situation than before the war are quite slim.”

Even the verb “reopen” can mean different things. Iran would like to maintain control of Hormuz, allowing ships to pass but paying a toll. Europe and Arab countries, on the other hand, would like free navigation.

“I believe Trump is primarily interested in resuming the movement of ships, because as long as they remain in place, the energy and garbage crises will only get worse.”

Would he accept Iranian control of the Strait?

"No. He could not accept a situation in which Tehran continues to demand 2 million euros for each ship. But he could accept a solution with an international monitoring system that includes Iran."

But Trump is not supporting the European leaders gathered in Paris.

"He is angry and sensitive, which is why he attacked Meloni and the Pope. But it is a sign that he feels weaker."

Is he negotiating from a position of weakness?

"The Iranians have realized they are in trouble and that Hormuz gives them considerable influence, so they are taking a tough stance."

Could Trump still emerge victorious?

There are two possibilities. It could end very badly for him, or just a little badly. If he doesn't get a deal, we're headed for a global recession. However, if he does, he will claim victory, but depending on the conditions, it's unlikely he'll be able to project a truly victorious image.


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