The Kerch Strait, already a target for invasions by Kiev in 2022 and 2023, connects Crimea to Russia. The dynamics are still uncertain, but “the Italian job” is not ruled out, a device transported by divers riding small torpedoes.
A new attack by Ukrainian intelligence has fooled Moscow's security apparatus for the second time and hit the most protected target of all: the Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
The Kiev raiders managed to detonate a bomb at the base of one of the concrete pillars. According to initial information leaked from Moscow, the damage appears limited: traffic was suspended only for the time needed to check the condition of the viaduct.
But the Ukrainians claim to have placed 1,100 kilograms of explosive plastic right under the foundations: if this were true, it would be an explosion so large that it would compromise the stability of the works. Even if the military effect of the attack has not yet been assessed, the propaganda impact is very high.
Also, because it was carried out after Sunday's attack by Kiev's 007 drone launch trucks in the heart of Russia, from Siberia to the gates of the Arctic, in which many bombers destined for the nuclear confrontation with the United States were destroyed: at least 13 aircraft were burned; American sources claim 20.
And on Saturday there were attacks against several railway bridges in Russian regions near the Ukrainian border and in the occupied city of Melitopol: at least two collapses were caused by explosive devices, while there is still no certainty about two others.
The Kerch Bridge has a completely different value: it is the material symbol of the annexation of Crimea. About 18 kilometers long, it was built at a cost of more than 4 billion euros to physically connect the peninsula (which until the invasion in 2022 had only land borders with Ukraine) with Russia.
The project was set in 2014 immediately after the invasion and was finally inaugurated by Vladimir Putin on December 23, 2019. With a dual road and rail connection, it played a strategic role in the logistics of the conflict, supplying the army engaged on the southern front of the fighting.
In October 2022, a Ukrainian secret service truck bomb, coming from Russia, exploded in the middle of a gap, causing two lanes to sink into the sea, while two others were also damaged by fire from the tank cars of a train passing by the suicide vehicle.
Traffic was only possible to a limited extent on a single lane and it took several months to repair it.
In July 2023, there was a second incursion, carried out with two remotely controlled motorized boats that detonated against the bases of the pillars. The explosive charge, equivalent to a total of about half a ton, failed to bring them down and the damage was limited.
However, since then, the major infrastructure has been equipped with protection of all kinds, while the movement of war materials, according to British intelligence, has been reduced.
Each pillar was equipped with remote-controlled electronic jamming systems against aircraft and ships, with a triple line of anti-aircraft guns and floating barriers.
An oversight that did not prevent the new strike by the Ukrainian state. It is not clear how the commandos managed to bypass the defenses. The prevailing hypothesis is that a highly sophisticated underwater drone was used, which would have placed the mine and then sunk a little further away so that the sabotage would not be detected.
But "the Italian job" has not been ruled out: a device transported by divers riding on small torpedoes, like the "pigs" used by the Royal Navy in 1942 against the British.
News of the Kerch attack was released less than two hours after a Security Council summit in the Kremlin, which also discussed the attack on the airports: spokesman Peskov said he was awaiting the outcome of the internal investigation.
Sunday's attack on five Russian nuclear squadron bases continues to raise fears of severe retaliation against Ukraine.
A response that, according to some analysts, could theoretically include the use of tactical nuclear warheads.
"Revenge is inevitable," former President Medvedev repeated. "Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up. Those who need to be eliminated will disappear."