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El Nino will break temperature records during 2023

2023-07-10 19:28:13Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
El Nino will break temperature records during 2023
El Nino will break temperature records during 2023

The El Nino phenomenon will continue throughout the second half of 2023. An update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that the probability of an active El Niño by the end of this year is 90%.

"El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and causing more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean," said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

"This is the signal for governments around the world to start preparing to limit the impact on our health, our ecosystems and our economies," he said. El Nino, which first appeared in the Pacific, occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. It is a natural climate pattern associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But this occurs in the context of a climate altered by human activities.

A WMO report, launched in May, predicted that there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record, beating the record set in 2016, when El Niño peaked. According to WMO's State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record due to the El Niño phenomenon combined with human-induced warming through greenhouse gases.

The effect on global temperatures usually occurs in the year following its development and is thus likely to be most noticeable in 2024. The global average temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900 average. During El Nino, the trade winds weaken. The warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of America.

El Nino is derived from Spanish and means little boy. South American fishermen first noted periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s.

The full name they used was El Nino de Navidad, because El Nino usually peaks around December (Christmas time). El Nino can significantly affect global weather conditions. Warmer waters cause the Pacific current to move south of its neutral position. With this change, areas in the northern US and Canada are drier and warmer than usual. But in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and flooding is increasing. The impact of this natural phenomenon extends not only to the weather, but also to fires, ecosystems and the economy.


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