IT'S HAPPENING/ Revolution in the DP! The doctor decides to open the party, as soon as the hall is ventilated!

 Kliko këtu për të tjera
Voxpress:

ANALYSIS/ He knew what was coming: Why Orban lost the elections after 16 years in power

2026-04-13 18:06:06Fokus SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Viktor Orban

By Max Griera in Budapest – Politico

Viktor Orban most likely knew what was coming.

When US Vice President JD Vance stood by his side last week and predicted that the Hungarian prime minister would win Sunday's election, Orban made a small gesture with his hand, as if to say: "I'm not so sure."

Since his challenger, Péter Magyar, emerged strongly in early 2024, the Hungarian leader has seen his support shrink, leaving him far behind in the polls as voters prepared to cast their ballots on April 12. Meanwhile, the opposition has rallied around Magyar with a single goal: toppling Orbán and his ruling party, Fidesz.

Here's how the Hungarian prime minister lost control after 16 years in power.

Orban lost public trust

Orban's downfall began in 2024, after the government pardoned the former deputy director of a children's home, who had been convicted of covering up sexual abuse of minors.

The ensuing scandal prompted Magyar, then a mid-level civil servant and member of Fidesz, to publicly oppose the prime minister, leading thousands of protesters into the streets. His media campaign included the release of an audio recording of his wife, Judit Varga, who had just been forced out of her post as justice minister, describing alleged government interference in the matter.

The allegations destroyed Fidesz’s image as a protector of children. It caused “a moral crisis of a moralizing government,” said Péter Krekó, director of the independent political consultancy Political Capital. “Since then, we can clearly see that whatever the government does, whatever the government says, resonates less with the public.”

Orban lost ground

Magyar used the 2024 pardon scandal as a springboard for the European Parliament elections that year. After several protests, he embarked on a nationwide tour, visiting villages, towns and cities across Hungary to break Fidesz’s grip on much of the country’s media, and won seven of the 21 seats in the European Parliament.

This year, after Magyar launched another tour, Orban launched his own, his first series of public rallies after years of tightly controlled, closed-door events. Not only did he fail to mobilize as many people as Magyar, he was often confronted by protesters.

In March, Orban angrily turned to a booing crowd, accusing him of wanting “a pro-Ukrainian government” and seeking to give Hungarian money to Kiev.

The video of the prime minister shouting went viral. That was perhaps the point when, “watching hundreds of people booing him from the stage,” Orban first realized that support for him was far from universal, said Viktória Serdült, a veteran HVG journalist who has covered Hungarian politics for more than two decades. “He couldn’t find the right way to handle it.”

Orban lost in foreign policy

Orban made foreign policy a central focus of his campaign. He accused Kiev of plotting to install Magyar as a puppet and of sabotaging the economy by cutting Hungary off from Russian oil. He claimed that Magyar would send Hungarians to fight in Ukraine and attacked the EU for trying to use Hungarian taxes to support Kiev.

This left him exposed to a narrative reversal when reports emerged of Russian interference in the campaign, along with revelations that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó had shared internal EU discussions with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

For Orban, who began his political career by calling for the withdrawal of the Soviet army in 1989, this change was a severe blow. The phrase “Russians, go home” quickly spread as a slogan against Orban.

Orban lost on the economy

As the vote approached, the country’s dire economic situation became a central issue in the election. For years, growth has stagnated, while inflation has soared and real wages have eroded. The cost-of-living crisis, combined with chronic underinvestment in education and healthcare, left many with the feeling that Orbán’s government had stopped delivering.

“People see that this is no longer a functioning government,” said Péter Márki-Zay, who led the campaign against the Hungarian prime minister in 2022. “That’s what has changed.”

“They hate Fidesz so much,” he added. “This wasn’t the case four years ago.”

Orban lost on social media

Orban dominated traditional media channels, where Fidesz is estimated to control around 80 percent of the landscape, placing loyalists in public media and enabling business figures linked to Fidesz to buy hundreds of regional and national media outlets.

But he quickly found himself outdone on social media.

Facebook is the most used platform in Hungary, with around 4 million visits in February 2026 in a country of 9 million people. After Meta banned political advertising on its platforms, Fidesz, until then the biggest spender on political advertising, found itself at a disadvantage, while Magyar and his Tisza party broke through with viral videos and direct communication with voters.

Orban has 1.6 million followers to Magyar's 930,000. Yet in March, Magyar posted 287 times, generating more than 14 million interactions, nearly double Orban's 7.8 million from 342 posts, according to a Telex calculation published on April 3.

The government accused Facebook of slowing down accounts linked to Fidesz, a claim the company denied.

Orban lost the youth vote

Orban's biggest mistake may have been alienating young voters, including, among other things, cracking down on Budapest's nightlife.

Polls suggest that young people turned massively against him, with about two-thirds supporting the opposition. “Thank you for restoring hope, hope for change,” Magyar said in his victory speech, addressing the thousands of young people in front of him.

The night before the vote, Orban made a final appeal to young people. He acknowledged that recent years had been “unfair” for them and said he understood their desire “to rebel,” but urged them to direct their discontent against Brussels. He also promised to prevent Ukraine from drawing young Hungarians into the war and promised tax cuts.

It was too late. Young people took to the streets of Budapest on Sunday evening to celebrate his loss.


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

Video

SHIKO KANALIN NE YOUTUBE
×