DREAM / The Prime Minister resigns and wakes up under the Parisian bridge!

 Kliko këtu për të tjera
Voxpress:

Why has it become so difficult to predict where it will rain?

2026-05-08 18:48:56Lifestyle SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why has it become so difficult to predict where it will rain?
Why has weather forecasting become so difficult?

A newly identified gap in climate models may explain why, in a world where climate and weather are meticulously observed, local rainfall predictions still remain so difficult.

Research published in the journal Nature reveals that current climate models underestimate the impact that human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions, have on large-scale atmospheric circulation, that is, on the winds that determine where precipitation will fall.

This discovery could help create more reliable forecasts for local rainfall, which directly affects agriculture, water supply and energy production.

Winds, the Achilles heel of models

A team of scientists from the University of Oxford and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich analyzed data on the distribution of winter precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 2022.

They found that, while current models have become very accurate in predicting that a warming atmosphere holds more moisture, they have not been as successful in understanding how these changes affect atmospheric circulation.

Experience shows that, with climate change, rainfall is becoming more intense and less regular, often interspersed with long periods of drought.

To accurately predict where precipitation will fall, two main processes must be considered: thermodynamic effects, related to heat and moisture, and dynamic effects.

The latter involve the circulation of high-speed air currents at high altitudes, which control the geographical distribution of precipitation.

Reasons for uncertainty

The researchers used statistical methods and advanced climate models to separate these two components and confirmed that, while the models accurately capture thermodynamic processes, they are less reliable in representing dynamic changes.

For example, in Southern Europe, climate models currently only manage to simulate 10 percent of precipitation patterns driven by atmospheric circulation.

The core of this difficulty lies in the fact that atmospheric circulation can change naturally and spontaneously over the years, often in unpredictable ways.

Added to this is the possibility that climate models underestimate the response of winds to human-caused changes.

It is this uncertainty between natural fluctuations and induced changes that makes it difficult to determine whether a change in air currents is simply a natural process or a consequence of the climate crisis. And it makes local-scale predictions less reliable.


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

Video

SHIKO KANALIN NE YOUTUBE
×