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"There is a chance for a very cold December", European climate experts warn

2022-10-14 18:05:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
"There is a chance for a very cold December", European climate experts
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Europe is "more likely than usual" to experience very cold weather before Christmas, according to a new long-term weather forecast from the main international climate body.

The warning comes at a time when European countries are intensively filling their natural gas reserves, hoping to survive the winter heating season without access to Russian gas.

Although analysts estimate that the amount of gas in the warehouses should be enough to pass the winter normally, but it is clear that if the temperatures drop significantly, European countries may be forced to rationalize or limit gas consumption, which would have a very negative impact on industry and daily life.

The possibility of a cold spell this year — most likely in December — is still "very real," Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) , told Politico . .

The "Multisystem Seasonal Forecast" for October, released Wednesday, is based on data from ECMF and six other national forecast centers.

The forecast for winter weather in early autumn is full of uncertainty and the main factors that could influence conditions – especially in January and February – “are not yet in play”, points out Buontempo.

If the current La Nina weather pattern of lower-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific continues into the New Year – not something that can be predicted with certainty yet – that usually means a milder second half of winter.

However, European governments, which are bracing for the first winter under an energy crisis, should still be wary of the possibility of cold weather before Christmas putting additional pressure on already strained natural gas supplies. the continent.

"We are coming off a warm summer. We know winters are getting milder. So maybe we tend to think that the winter will be mild and that we shouldn't worry," says Buontempo. "That may be the case, but the forecast we're releasing today and our understanding of how the climate system works makes us stress that there is indeed still a chance for a very cold snap, and this year the chance for that - before Christmas - is greater than in a normal year".

Wednesday's forecast still contains uncertainty, but energy markets typically pay close attention to the long-term forecast for November because by then most of the key factors shaping the weather for the second half of winter are "in play," Buontempo concluded.


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