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Putin and nuclear weapons: How can he be stopped?

2022-10-14 17:47:26Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Putin and nuclear weapons: How can he be stopped?
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The Kremlin repeatedly threatens to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Is Vladimir Putin really ready for this? Where are the red lines?

Since the end of September, Ukrainian troops have carried out a successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions. Tensions are rising in the Kremlin because of the losses, while concerns are growing around the world about the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, because Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened this possibility since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

The British newspaper The Times, citing NATO sources, reported that Russia is preparing nuclear weapons tests in the Black Sea. A video has surfaced online showing a Russian military train moving towards the Ukrainian border and is suspected to be linked to the Russian Defense Ministry's 12th Main Directorate, which is responsible for the country's nuclear arsenal.

The slow escalation of the Kremlin

Gerhard Mangott, professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, takes seriously the risk of using Russian nuclear weapons. The military train and the launch of the submarine K-329 "Belgorod" could be nuclear messages. "The Russian leadership is showing Ukraine and Western governments that Russia is capable, and perhaps even willing, to use nuclear weapons," Mangott said. "At the moment this is just intimidation. But Russia intends to send a signal that Ukraine should not continue its offensive and that the West should no longer support Ukraine with weapons."

If these threats do not stop Ukraine's counteroffensive, Vladimir Putin may move on to the next phase. "As a radicalized 'stop the offensive' message, Russia may test a tactical nuclear weapon over the Black Sea or in Kamchatka." If such an explosion over an uninhabited area does not convince Ukraine and it continues to retake more areas, Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon, Mangott says. "This will not happen on the front line, but in the interior, in the Ukrainian residential areas, in the urban areas."

Military expert and former Bundeswehr colonel Ralph Thiele believes that if a Russian nuclear bomb on uninhabited terrain has no deterrent effect, Moscow may try to attack political and economic targets in Ukraine. “It could be an explosion that sends out an electromagnetic pulse and destroys everything powered by electricity – cars, televisions, satellites, computers, power plants – over an area of ​​hundreds of square kilometres. That would be a variant.”

Strong words from the USA

Most international experts agree that the use of nuclear weapons would have devastating consequences for Russia. "Even with a test that would actually violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty ratified by Russia, there would be severe economic and financial sanctions," Mangott explains.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned of "catastrophic consequences". In an interview with CBS in late September, he said senior US officials had made this clear to the Kremlin "directly, confidentially, at the highest level".

According to Gerhard Mangott, the US and NATO response is likely to be military. Former CIA director David Petraeus said the US and its allies are ready to destroy the entire Russian military on Ukrainian territory and sink the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Mangott believes that such a strike would be asymmetric, that is, with conventional weapons: "Putin is not only told how the West will react to the use of a nuclear bomb, but he is also told that Russia will then be isolated globally and that China and India will also condemn such a step."

China's potential

China has so far maintained a neutral position in the war in Ukraine. At the same time, many experts agree that Beijing can help prevent Putin from launching a nuclear attack. Ralph Thiele believes the West must do more to make China a strategic ally. "Putin is dependent on China. The world would have the opportunity here, with China's help, to reach a ceasefire as a first step."

However, according to the expert, the West should not pressure China to join the sanctions against Russia. This would not be beneficial for Beijing. China is interested in ending the war in Ukraine, mainly for economic reasons. The country also does not want the war to escalate into a nuclear war. “Our politicians actually want to keep China out of Europe because they think it will be quite difficult to deal with China in the global economy and geopolitics in the future. I think we have to overcome the lesser evil, namely the uncomfortable and stronger presence of China here in Europe," says Thiele.

Crimea: Putin's "red line".

According to Gerhard Mangott, whether the warnings from Washington will have a preventive effect depends on the further course of the fighting in Ukraine. According to the expert, the Ukrainian army's attempt to regain Crimea could become a "red line" for Vladimir Putin. "I can't imagine he would stand by and watch Ukraine take back Crimea. This would immediately jeopardize his position and bring about his downfall. The main question is whether Putin will be cold-blooded and determined enough to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat," said Mangott. "I'm afraid that Putin is cold-blooded and obsessed enough to do this. But there is at least some hope that his order to use nuclear weapons will not be carried out by those who must carry it out."

But currently there are no signs that the Russian leadership has decided to use nuclear weapons, Gerhard Mangott points out. "We are not at that point yet. We are not yet at the stage where Russia risks losing this war catastrophically. But with every defeat that Russia suffers on the battlefield, with every recapture of Russian-controlled territories by the Ukrainian army, the probability of such a scenario can increase." /DW


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