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Analysis of a dangerous situation: What would happen if Israel attacked Iranian oil?

2024-10-04 19:48:26Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
What would happen if Israel attacked Iranian oil?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened a strong attack against Iran in response to the firing of dozens of missiles at several Israeli locations, so it is expected that a possible target could be Iran's oil and gas fields, which would cause starting a global energy crisis by drastically increasing energy prices.

Bloomberg reports that while strikes on Iran's oil facilities could cause major economic damage to Tehran, it could lead to a large increase in oil prices on the world market, which could have far-reaching economic consequences.

While Iran's vast oil infrastructure, which includes vast oil fields, pipelines, export terminals and refineries, makes it a tempting target for Israeli strikes, experts warn the move could backfire.

Iran's oil industry is the foundation of its economy. Despite sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western powers, Iran still exports between half and two-thirds of its oil, with most of that oil ending up in China.

Chinese imports of Iranian oil have grown steadily in recent years, reaching around 1.8 million barrels per day. This means that any disruption to Iran's oil exports would significantly affect Tehran's economy, as well as harm China's economy (the world's second largest economy), and thus the global economy.

Price increase

On Tuesday, oil prices rose by five dollars per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Analysts warn that a successful bombing of Iran's oil production and export facilities could further increase prices, potentially destabilizing the global economy.

Bloomberg points out that a cut in Iranian oil supplies would force Chinese refiners to increase purchases from other major suppliers, including Russia. This shift could provide more financial support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine, further complicating the broader geopolitical situation.

Escalation risks

Military analysts warn that any such Israeli attack could trigger Iranian retaliation and further escalation in the region. Israeli leaders face pressure to strike a balance between their desire to weaken Iran and the need to avoid entering an endless cycle of violence.

"Israel must carefully consider the broader consequences of such attacks," a military analyst told Bloomberg. He added: "While targeting Iran's oil industry could weaken Tehran, rising energy prices and the economic fallout could trigger a stronger response from Iran."

These challenges come at a time when some analysts predict that oil prices could fall in 2025 due to oversupply, but any military action against Iran's oil infrastructure could change that direction.


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