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How war with Iran is hurting Donald Trump's presidency

2026-03-22 23:06:45Fokus SHKRUAR NGA THE ECONOMIST
How war with Iran is hurting Donald Trump's presidency

The war that's  backfiring: An unpopular conflict and expensive fuel are weighing down Trump's presidency

At first it seemed like a show of strength. Today, more and more, it seems like a burden.

The war launched by Donald Trump against Iran is producing consequences that extend beyond the battlefield – to the global economy, to the daily lives of Americans and, above all, to the president's own political future.

Trump claims to have “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capabilities.” But what remained, however small, was enough to hit where it hurts most: the global oil market.

With up to 15% of supply cut off, prices have risen sharply, reflected daily on the bright signs at gas pumps across America.

These charts have become a kind of political barometer. Every price increase is a direct reminder to voters – and a blow to the White House. The irony is stark: The biggest blow is being felt in the very states that brought Trump to power. In Republican areas, where fuel taxes are lower, any fluctuations in the price of oil translate more quickly and strongly into costs for citizens.

In these circumstances, campaign promises sound increasingly distant. Trump had promised to avoid wars and lower prices “from day one.” Now he faces a reality where he has done the opposite of both. Support for war remains strong only among a segment of the Republican base – and even there, enthusiasm is fading.

In small towns and rural areas, the discontent is not ideological – it is practical. Rising oil prices are hitting transportation, agriculture and small businesses. The price of oil doesn’t just affect the pump; it spreads throughout the economy, from food to building materials.

American history does not give much hope to presidents in such situations. Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush are stark reminders that energy crises often end with political costs.

Meanwhile, cracks are appearing within the conservative camp itself. Some see the war as a strategic move that could weaken Iran for years. Others are more skeptical. They warn that eliminating the old Iranian elite could pave the way for more radical and less predictable figures.

In this uncertainty, one question becomes increasingly strong: who controls the situation?

The war appears to have entered a phase where there is no clear way out. To achieve real change in Iran, a much deeper engagement would be required – something Trump has not promised and does not seem willing to undertake.

At the same time, relations with allies have cooled. After years of tensions with NATO and European partners, the US is facing a reality where requests for assistance are not getting the expected response.

In a conflict that affects major global energy arteries, the lack of international coordination is a serious weakness.

Trump's political future now hangs on a delicate balance. If the war ends quickly and prices stabilize, he can sell the conflict as a strategic victory.

But if the crisis drags on, if prices continue to rise and discontent spreads, war with Iran could turn into the defining moment of his downfall.

Because in the end, for voters, it's not the geopolitical maps that matter. It's the bills. And they, for now, are rising.


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