How did Britain's Labor Party get voted in again?

In less than five years, the opposition Labor Party has gone from massive defeat to favorite to win next month's election. But how did he do it?

Mark Landler – New York Times

Two weeks before an election expected to catapult him into the office of '10 Downing Street', Britain's Labor Party leader Keir Starmer is tiptoeing on the campaign trail, the latest practitioner of the Ming vase strategy.

The phrase, which refers to a politician who diligently avoids mistakes to protect a lead in the polls, is attributed to Roy Jenkins, a British politician who compared former Labor candidate Tony Blair in the run-up to his landslide 1997, as a man who is "holding a precious Ming vase on a very smooth floor".

Indeed, Starmer has held the pot for much longer than this six-week campaign.

He has nurtured his party's double-digit lead in the polls for more than 18 months, methodically repositioning Labor as a credible centre-left alternative to the divided, erratic, sometimes extremist Conservatives.

It is the culmination of a remarkable four-year project in which Starmer, 61, purged his left-wing predecessor Jeremy Corbyn and his loyalists; went after the anti-Semitism that had contaminated the party's ranks; and pulled its economic and national security policies closer to the center.

"When he first became leader in 2020, he set out to remove all the negatives that were preventing people from voting Labor in 2019," said Steven Fielding, a professor of political history at the University of Nottingham.

As a result, "he has been able to expand the group of voters."

Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, has said that “four years ago, Keir Starmer was basically offering Corbynisation with a human face – and he rejected all that. It has moved to the center because the incentives have moved there and the audience has moved there."

It is tempting to compare Starmer's remaking of the Labor Party with that of Blair in the 1990s.

Both pulled their party out of the political wilderness by rebranding it as business-friendly, more about economic opportunity than tax-and-spend liberalism or socialist-style wealth redistribution.

Blair's New Labor softened ties between the party and the unions, just as Starmer rejected Corbyn's promise to renationalise Britain's energy grid.

However, analysts say there are profound differences between the New Labor of 1997 and today's Labor Party.

Blair bëri fushatë si një apostull i ekonomisë globale, i cili besonte se qeveria nuk duhet të ndërhynte në tregje.

Starmer mori një qasje shumë më aktiviste, duke argumentuar se një rol i fortë shtetëror është kritik për ofrimin e sigurisë ekonomike për njerëzit e klasës punëtore.

Siguria është një mantra që kalon përmes mesazheve të Laburistëve, nga ekonomia te imigracioni dhe siguria kombëtare.

Kjo pasqyron pikëpamjen e Starmer për një botë që është bërë ekonomikisht më e trazuar që nga kriza financiare e vitit 2009 dhe gjeopolitikisht më e rrezikshme që nga pushtimi i Ukrainës nga Rusia.

“Vetë themeli i çdo qeverie të mirë është siguria ekonomike, siguria kufitare, siguria kombëtare”, ka thënë Starmer në fjalimin e tij të parë të fushatës së madhe muajin e kaluar në qytetin bregdetar të Lancing.

“Ky është themeli, themeli mbi të cilin do të ndërtohet manifesti ynë dhe hapat tanë të parë”.

Kontrasti midis Starmer dhe Blair, sipas profesor Fielding, është i ngjashëm me atë midis ish-presidentit Bill Clinton, i cili predikoi virtytet e tregtisë së lirë dhe ekonomisë globale, dhe presidentit Biden, i cili ka shmangur marrëveshjet tregtare në favor të marrëveshjeve të mëdha.

“Blair ishte me të vërtetë një liberal globalizues: tregtia e lirë, rritja ekonomike, dinamizmi është i mirë, përçarja është e mirë”, ka shtuar profesor Ford.

“Botëkuptimi i Starmer është shumë i ndryshëm: ai mendon se ndryshimi duhet të menaxhohet dhe kontrollohet”.

Starmer, ashtu si Biden, do të trashëgojë një ekonomi që ende po largon efektet e pandemisë.

Rritja e Britanisë ka pasuar atë të SHBA-ve dhe shërbimet e saj publike, veçanërisht Shërbimi Kombëtar i Shëndetit i nderuar, janë varfëruar pas viteve të kursimit fiskal nën qeveritë e udhëhequra nga konservatorët.

Një qeveri laburiste do të funksionojë nën kufizime të rrepta financiare, gjë që ka ngritur pyetje nëse Starmer do t’i duhet të rrisë taksat për të paguar investimet e premtuara dhe shërbime të tjera publike.

Ai ka lëshuar një premtim të plotë për të mos rritur taksat për “njerëzit që punojnë”.

Por laburistët pritet të rrisin taksat për kompanitë e naftës dhe gazit, firmat e kapitalit privat dhe të huajt me të ardhura të larta që jetojnë në Britani.

Ai gjithashtu do të heqë një ulje tatimore për shkollat ??private, një lëvizje që thotë se do të paguajë për 6 mijë e 500 mësues të shkollave publike shtesë.

Premtimi i laburistëve për të qenë të kujdesshëm fiskal është personifikuar nga Rachel Reeves, e cila do të ishte kancelare e Thesarit në qeverinë e re.

Dikur bankiere dhe ekonomiste në Bankën e Anglisë, Reeves konfirmoi shkurtin e kaluar se partia do të zvogëlonte politikën e saj ambicioze klimatike, e parashikuar të kushtonte 28 miliardë paund në vit, derisa financat e Britanisë të stabilizoheshin.

The change was calculated to shield Labor from accusations it would run a tax-and-spend government, although Prime Minister Rishi Sunak still accuses it of planning to raise taxes on households - a claim Labor disputes.

Reeves is part of an inner circle around Starmer that reflects his moderate instincts.

Some of them refused to serve under Corbyn, although as Starmer's opponents point out, he was in his predecessor's team.

"These people are signaling to more centrist voters that this is a Labor Party you can feel relatively comfortable with," said Jill Rutter, a senior UK-based researcher at a Changing Europe, a think tank.

Starmer has also shown no interest in rekindling the bitter Brexit debate.

He has ruled out a return to the European Union, although he has opened the door to a closer trade relationship with Brussels.

The Conservatives used this issue to their advantage in 2019 by promising to "finish Brexit".

On foreign policy, too, Starmer has worked to inoculate Labor from accusations of a lack of patriotism that dogged it under Mr Corbyn, who once said he hoped to see the Nato alliance dismantled.

Starmer has pledged to increase military spending and maintain Britain's unwavering support for Ukraine.

He has also closely supported the Conservative government's support for Israel in the war in Gaza.

This is in line with his campaign to rid Labor of anti-Semitism, although it has alienated some Muslim supporters and appears to be one of the party's only obstacles in the July 4 election.

Of all the reasons Labor looks more electable, analysts say, the biggest may simply be the collapse of its opponents, not only the Conservatives but also the Scottish National Party, which has been discredited by a financial scandal involving former leaders of her.

Few analysts would have predicted, in the wake of Labour's crushing defeat in 2019, that it would be at the helm of national power today.

"Keir Starmer has been incredibly lucky," according to Rutter.

"He has managed to rehabilitate the Labor Party at the same moment that his opponents have significantly reduced their offer to voters."