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SCENARIOS: What happens if Trump decides to attack Iran or assassinate the Ayatollah?

2025-06-20 23:56:39Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
An Israeli woman holds an M16 assault rifle as she walks near the seafront in Tel Aviv

If the US bombs a nuclear facility in Iran or kills the supreme leader, it could ignite a more dangerous and unpredictable phase of the war.

If President Trump decides to send American bombers to assist Israel in destroying nuclear facilities in Iran, a more dangerous phase of the war would begin.

And if the US assassinates Iran's supreme leader, as Trump has implied it might, there is no guarantee that the successor would be more friendly. Iran's autocratic clerical system has survived for nearly 50 years, despite widespread protests.

Destroying the underground Fordow facility would not necessarily stop the nuclear program and could push Iran to escalate the war.

Here are some ways the war could play out, according to the New York Times, if the United States decides to engage in an attack.

Iran can negotiate

Before Israel's surprise attack, the US and Iran were discussing limits on uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. However, after the attack, negotiations collapsed. Once again, Iran has signaled it is willing to talk.

“If the attack is followed by a serious offer, like sanctions relief or peace guarantees, Iran may make concessions,” said Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University. But Trump has only demanded “unconditional surrender.”

Iran may deepen its nuclear program

Although Fordow is in the spotlight, some speculate that Iran may have secret facilities. Despite the strikes and assassinations of scientists, Iran does not currently have the capacity to quickly build a bomb, but it could accelerate down that path.

Iran has warned it could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which bans the production of nuclear weapons and requires the country to accept inspections. So far, Tehran insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

The war could escalate

Iran has so far avoided attacking American targets to avoid drawing the US into war. But if Trump strikes, Iran could respond forcefully, including closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's allied groups in the region, such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, or militias in Iraq, have not yet been involved, but they could be activated.

The discussion about regime change

Trump said the US is considering killing Ayatollah Khamenei. Netanyahu said regime change could be the result of this war. But if Khamenei is killed, there is no guarantee that the regime will fall.

The Revolutionary Guard Corps could take control and install a more radical figure. Some fear that Iran could descend into chaos or civil war.

The Iranian people can rise again

Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to rise up against the regime. Protests like the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests in 2022 show the deep discontent. But in each case, the regime has responded with brutal violence.

Some Iranians initially hailed the Israeli attacks as evidence of government failure. But as the civilian death toll rises and panic grips cities, anti-Israel sentiment is growing.

Iranian social media has been filled with patriotic messages against foreign interference, even if not necessarily in support of the regime.


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