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Arrests and internal strife: Is Turkey's largest opposition party collapsing?

2025-06-20 19:03:27Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Protests in Turkey for Imamoglu's release

The arrest of potential presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu and another court case against the party leadership threaten the survival of the CHP.

When Nacho Sánchez Amor, the European Parliament's rapporteur on Turkey, appeared before the cameras about ten days ago, he looked visibly shaken. After visiting the imprisoned mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, the social democrat was very clear when he said: "The Imamoglu case is completely fabricated."

Sánchez Amor, said the opposition leader "is in prison because Erdogan's candidate could not defeat him." Amor stressed that the Istanbul prosecutor's office is tasked with the political destruction of Imamoglu. "This is what I will convey to my European colleagues," he added.

The former mayor of Istanbul and presidential candidate of the main opposition CHP party has been held in Silivri prison since March 19. The 54-year-old is accused of corruption, founding a criminal organization and supporting terrorism, among other things. Some 130 people have been arrested in the investigation against him so far - the number is growing almost daily due to new raids.

Imamoglu still enjoys great support and solidarity. His party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), regularly organizes protests across the country. However, this support may soon weaken.

Hopes even in prison

Imamoglu is known as a politician close to the people, charismatic and capable of mobilizing the masses. For years, he has been the strongest rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In Istanbul, a city of millions of people, he defeated Erdogan's candidates three times, which ended the AKP's invincibility.

Thanks to these successes, Imamoglu has been performing with increasing confidence. After the opposition's defeat in the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023, the popular politician put pressure on his party for reforms. At the party congress in the fall of the same year, with his strong support, a candidate of his choice - Ozgür Ozel - was elected as the new party chairman and the entire leadership was replaced. Since then, the CHP has begun to gain more and more support. The following year, it won the country's local elections.

Imamoglu has since been considered a potential presidential candidate and was officially nominated in March.

Arrests and internal strife: Is Turkey's largest opposition party
Imamoglu is facing multiple charges in prison

A dramatic trial against the CHP

With the imprisonment of Imamoglu and other opposition politicians, the CHP has been under great pressure in recent months. Now it faces another major challenge: a dramatic trial against the party. On June 30, 2025, a court in Ankara could annul the election of the current party leadership by the Congress held in November 2023.

Some supporters of former party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu have alleged irregularities in the election process and have filed criminal charges. They accuse the reformist wing of Ozel and Imamoglu of buying the votes of delegates.

A politically manipulated trial

Media outlets close to Erdogan and the authorities have long been trying to undermine the unity of the largest opposition party with their reporting, CHP supporters believe. Allegations that the former party chairman and his entire camp are victims of internal party intrigues are being deliberately spread.

If this has truly been done systematically, then the goal has probably been achieved: within the CHP and among its supporters, opposing wings are attacking each other and exchanging insults and serious accusations.

According to political scientist Baris Ovgun, the opposition is thus "falling into the trap of the authorities," who have long used the tactic of dividing different wings within opposition parties with the aim of weakening their unity.

"On June 30, the judges can dismiss the current party leadership with their decision," Ovgun said in an interview with DW. However, he believes that the announcement of the decision will probably be postponed in order to further deepen the divisions within the CHP and create the impression in the public: "Look, they can't even run the party, so how will they run the state?"

Chaos in the opposition?

If the current leadership election is canceled on June 30, observers fear chaos within the opposition. Until a new party congress is held and a new leadership is elected, chaos, uncertainty and anarchy could reign - which could even lead to a split in the party. Another possibility is that former party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu returns and his camp takes control of the party.

Kilicdaroglu, who is considered a member of the conservative wing of the CHP, led the party for 13 years and lost every election to Erdogan's AKP during that time. Observers accuse him of being out of touch with the people. He is also considered Erdogan's favorite opponent.

Expert Berk Esen criticizes the indecisive stance of former CHP leader Kilicdaroglu in the current debate and ahead of the upcoming trial. Although he claims to have withdrawn, his name is listed in the indictment as a victim and he appears as an injured party, Esen points out.

Imamoglu and several politicians from the reformist wing of the CHP, however, are listed as defendants, wrote a political scientist on the X platform. In the context of the June 30 ruling, the judiciary could pave the way for a political ban on Imamoglu, Esen continues. The whole process is like a "lever that the government uses against the opposition" and that it can activate at any time.

Kilicdaroglu's tacit support for the trial makes it difficult for the opposition to have a unified and clear stance towards the Turkish government.

If the CHP, after the decision to annul the election of the current leadership, does not immediately call a party congress to elect a new leadership, it risks the appointment of a forced administration. All observers agree that all of these scenarios are most detrimental to Ekrem Imamoglu.

The lack and decline of support he has in his own party could forever push Erdogan's strongest opponent into the background./ DW


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