Will the suspension of USAID programs benefit Beijing in creating influence in the world?

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), whose programs have been suspended by the Trump administration, has long been criticized by Beijing. As USAID projects wind down, will Beijing step in to try to build influence? Some analysts say that while China would like to fill the void, its economic woes may limit its ability to do so.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who now serves as USAID administrator, said that only programs that are consistent with the new government's policies will be restored.

"This is taxpayer money, and we are obligated to provide assurances to the American people that every dollar we are spending abroad advances our national interest," he told reporters while visiting El Salvador earlier this week.

USAID had an annual budget of more than $40 billion and provided aid around the world, including a program dealing with China that has been the subject of criticism from the White House.

In a document on “waste and abuse” by USAID released on February 3, the White House said the agency had given millions of dollars to EcoHealth Alliance, a US organization that works to protect against infectious diseases. The organization has been accused of working with the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China on research into the coronavirus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. Both EcoHealth Alliance and the Chinese government have denied the allegations.

The agency has used funding as an impact strategy

In recent years, USAID has increasingly tailored its funding for China-related programs as a strategy to curb China's global expansion through aid and investment.

The archive of the now-defunct USAID website shows that the agency boasted that its “Countering Chinese Influence Fund” was one of its “key achievements.” The fund “will advance national security goals” to “ensure more resilient partners that are able to withstand pressure from China and other malign actors.”

Michael Schiffer, former USAID assistant administrator for Asia, told a congressional committee in 2023 that the agency had supported the collection of data on China's foreign investment for more than a decade. The information was collected through AidData, a research group at the College of William and Mary in Virginia, United States.

The funding freeze has created financial difficulties for at least one such USAID-funded project. Brian Eyler, a researcher at the Stimson Center in Washington, wrote on Facebook that his project, Mekong Dams Monitor, is struggling to continue operating due to the funding freeze.

"We have been ordered to halt operations for 90 days pending further review. This means our Southeast Asia program may not be able to continue operations," he wrote.

Mr. Eyler’s project was launched by the State Department during the first Trump administration to study how dams built by China and other countries on the Mekong River in Southeast Asia have negatively impacted communities. According to Mr. Eyler’s writing, the project had funding from both the State Department and USAID.

Chinese state media had accused the project of smearing China.

Voice of America, the Mandarin service, contacted the Stimson Center for more details, but did not receive a response.

On Wednesday, Secretary Rubio said the Trump administration is in the process of identifying programs that are exempt from the funding ban.

"This is not about ending aid to the outside world. It's about structuring it in a way that advances the national interest of the United States," Secretary Rubio said during his several-day trip to Latin America.

USAID's critics

USAID has also been the target of Beijing's ire. China's Foreign Ministry released a report last year accusing USAID programs of corruption and prioritizing United States interests.

The suspension of USAID programs has been well-received on Chinese websites, where anti-US sentiment is prevalent. Many users praised Elon Musk, the billionaire and head of the US Department of Government Efficiency, for the suspension of the agency's programs.

Mr. Musk, in a post on the social network X, described USAID as "a criminal organization" and that it is time "for it to die."

Critics of the suspension of USAID activities worry that Beijing will see this as an opportunity to fill the created void.

"China has spent trillions of dollars in many countries because it is interested in drawing them into its sphere of influence," Democratic Senator Chris Coons wrote in The Washington Post.

Steven Balla, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University in Washington, told VOA Mandarin that he agrees with the assessment. However, he said that China's plan to expand aid to the outside world is likely to be hampered by its ongoing domestic problems.

“It’s about youth unemployment; the real estate crisis and so on,” he said. “This could make it difficult for President Xi’s administration to expand aggressively into new parts of the world after the United States withdraws.”

Some activists worry that even if China tries to fill the gap, certain areas where there were once American aid programs will not receive the same kind of funding or, perhaps, no aid at all.

A former environmental lawyer in China who now lives in the United States told VOA that compared to U.S. aid programs, China's aid is more conditional and requires monetary benefits for China. She asked to remain anonymous because she fears attacks or threats from Beijing.

A 2021 report published by China shows that between 2013 and 2018, China spent $376 billion on aid to the outside world. Of this aid, 45% went to Africa in areas such as agriculture, medical aid, food supply, disease control and environmental change.

The former Chinese environmental lawyer said that if it is left entirely to China to provide aid, areas such as women's rights and natural resource management will lose a large portion of funding because China is not interested in improving local governance.

"It will certainly have a very serious impact on the African people," she said, "which will not be seen in a day or two."/VOA