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World Meteorological Organization sounds the alarm: Extreme drought, fires... global temperatures will reach new records

2025-05-28 08:21:17Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
World Meteorological Organization sounds the alarm: Extreme drought, fires...
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There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record in the next five years, increasing the risk of extreme droughts, floods and forest fires, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

For the first time, the data also showed a small chance that before 2030, the world will experience a year 2 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial era, a possibility that scientists described as "shocking".

Coming off the back of the 10 hottest years ever measured, the latest medium-term global climate update highlights the growing threat to human health, national economies and natural landscapes if people do not stop burning oil, gas, coal and trees.

The update, which synthesizes short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections, said there was a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 would be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

This would bring the world dangerously close to breaching the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change, although that target is based on a 20-year average.

The chance of a 2 degree Celsius increase before 2030 is small – around 1% – and would require a convergence of multiple warming factors, such as a strong El Niño and a positive Arctic Oscillation, but this was previously considered unlikely on a five-year timeframe.

“It’s shocking that 2C is plausible,” said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a key role in compiling the data. “It’s only 1% over the next five years, but the probability will increase as the climate warms.”

The impacts will not fall evenly. Arctic winters are predicted to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, partly because sea ice is melting, meaning snow falls directly into the ocean instead of forming a layer on the surface to reflect the sun's heat back into space. The Amazon rainforest is predicted to suffer more drought, while South Asia, the Sahel and Northern Europe, including the UK, will see more rain.

Leon Hermanson of the Met Office, who led the report, said 2025 was likely to be one of the three warmest years ever recorded.

Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, described a “worrying picture” for heatwaves and human health. However, he said it was not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions were reduced.


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