Who will Germany trade with? There are not so many democratic market economies in the world. Away from Russia and China: Looking for new business partners, Germany wants to break out of dangerous economic dependencies.
Asia is not just China. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been spreading this message for months. "I want us to look to the other Asia, to Africa and South America for investments, for imports and exports", says Olaf Scholz often.
The "other Asia" also includes Vietnam and Singapore, two countries that the chancellor will visit, before participating in the G20 summit of the largest industrialized and expanding countries in Indonesia (November 15/16). A delegation of German entrepreneurs will also be on board. In Singapore, Scholz gives a speech at the Asia-Pacific conference of German business, which will also be attended by German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.
Diversification means spreading risk
The trip and especially the participation in the Asia-Pacific conference are a signal of the desired economic diversification, aimed at greater independence from China, the chancellor's office announced. Breaking away from the routine always hides risks for firms. It is learned from the Ministry of Economy that there will be favorable state guarantees for investments, through which companies can secure new businesses. While guarantees for countries like China will be reduced.
Economic relations with Singapore have strengthened during the corona pandemic. Many German companies relocated to Singapore due to the restrictive COVID regulations and the political situation in Hong Kong. More than 2,000 German firms are currently registered there. The high-tech country also hosts two multibillion-dollar state funds, which invest mainly in sustainable projects, which the German government would like to include in financing Germany's energy transition. This will undoubtedly be a topic of Olaf Scholz's meeting with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Focus on Southeast Asia
The Indo-Pacific strategy of the German government has been developed since Angela Merkel. Scholz now wants to expand it in light of developments in China. The chancellor held the first joint governmental consultations with India and previously also went to Japan. Even the German president and the foreign minister have been to Asia.
Vietnam as "a major middle power in Southeast Asia" and Singapore as "a foreign policy actor, which is oriented towards stability and rules and with which in this respect we have a number of things in common" are, as so to speak, the "conclusion" for the first year in office of the chancellor, was said by the chancellor's office on the eve of the trip.
What is more important: values or interests?
But how far do the marked similarities go? Until they meet the criteria for international cooperation, which have been agreed between the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Democrats (FDP) in their coalition agreement? Trade and supply chains today are politically charged. The Greens in particular want a value-based foreign and trade policy. Ethical and moral aspects are very important to them, especially respect for human rights.
For Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock this is so important that she publicly reminded the chancellor of this before he traveled to China. In the SPD this caused a storm of indignation. The chancellor must not allow himself to be lectured, it was said. For the social democrats, however, the line of the Greens is a bit foreign. Martin Schulz, the head of the Friedrich-Ebert foundation close to the party, had previously accused Baerbock that foreign policy cannot be made "just by pointing the finger at morals", but that we must "also be guided by pragmatic imperatives". ".
SPD lowers claims
Such is the line of the chancellor. Olaf Scholz has repeatedly emphasized in recent months that in an increasingly multipolar world, one cannot rely only on those who have the same political views. It represents an interest-based foreign policy that measures decisions by their potential economic or strategic success.
There are many countries that are not democracies and states of law, Scholz said recently at an SPD party event. But this alone is not an exclusion criterion for him, if two other important points hold. It is very important "that we should not be too afraid, if we have a different opinion from that of the government". The rule of law must be appreciated from the beginning, "we must be sure that the government does not persecute the other".
The second criterion is "not to be aggressive towards the neighbors, not to follow revanchistic concepts". Based on these two criteria, "there will be many with whom we can and should work", said Scholz. Democracy must be "won by the peoples of the world themselves", it is not about "the concept of a regime change". What Scholz means by this: It is not about re-education, but about getting everyone to agree, as best as possible, with each other.
Doing business only with friends only "makes you poor"
Political scientist Heribert Dieter from the Science and Politics Foundation thinks this is right. "If it serves our economic interests, then we must maintain economic relations with problematic countries", says the professor in a conversation with DW. The idea of focusing only on market economies, which are friendly and democratic, is "very popular at the moment, but it is the wrong way".
This makes you "poorer, because we partially give up the benefits of the international division of labor." In addition, it deprives potential partners of the possibility of further development and pushes them into the arms of China and Russia. "When it comes to relations with many Asian, African and Latin American countries, for the Chinese, business comes first. And if we put a lot of emphasis on values, then it's clear who will do the business," says Dieter.
Successful businesses thanks to the free trade agreement
Singapore is not a democracy in the Western sense either, but is governed autocratically. The country is stable and values respect for the rules and has recently strengthened gay rights, for example. Thanks to a free trade agreement with the European Union, there are now close economic ties with Germany. The volume of bilateral trade in 2021 increased to 11.4 billion euros.
Even with socialist Vietnam, Germany has good economic relations, which are based on historical ties at the time of the division of Germany. At that time many Vietnamese lived in the GDR (former German Democratic Republic). The German language is widely taught in Vietnam, and there is even a German-Vietnamese university.
Abductions blur the frame
During the corona pandemic, Vietnam generously donated masks to Germany. The German government responded and Vietnam received one of the largest vaccine donations from Germany, with over ten million doses. Vietnam is "a strong economic partner and with which it is worth exploring further forms of cooperation", it is said in German government circles.
But even Vietnam is not a market economy nor a rule of law in the Western sense, and the relationship with Germany is not smooth either. A Vietnamese man, who is said to have been involved in the kidnapping of a countryman on behalf of the Vietnamese secret service, is currently on trial in Berlin. The former manager had sought political asylum in Germany. In 2017 he was attacked in Berlin and dragged into a van with his girlfriend. He was sent to Vietnam via Prague and sentenced there twice to life imprisonment.
Vietnam is needed – even against Russia
The German government then expelled a diplomat and the official representative of the Vietnamese secret service in Germany and demanded the immediate release of the abductee. This did not work, but protests from Berlin apparently prevented the man from being sentenced to death.
Whether the fate of the businessman will be discussed again in Hanoi is unknown. On the other hand, what the German chancellor probably wants to talk about is Vietnam's position towards the Russian war against Ukraine. In the votes of the UN General Assembly, Vietnam has so far always abstained. A clear positioning will now be required, says the chancellor's office. This also includes a clear stance regarding the use of nuclear weapons./ DW