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Europe breathes a sigh of relief from the French elections, but the leftist Mélenchon is the new headache

2024-07-08 18:21:29Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Europe breathes a sigh of relief from the French elections, but the leftist
Party of leftist sympathizers

Big surprise, of course.

And a big sigh of relief. Marine Le Pen's radical right will not have the numbers to govern France.

"Emmanuel Macron won the bet politically", summarizes a diplomat, a few minutes after the publication of the exit polls.

In short, Brussels welcomes the result.

Even if now he will have to face a scenario that has yet to be deciphered.

“The new headache? His name is Jean-Luc Mélenchon," says another source from a Central European country.

The bitter reality, in fact, is that France is entering a period of political instability which risks having catastrophic consequences for the European project, also because - as pointed out by various European sources - the Nouveau Front Populaire (Nfp) has internal forces of different, with contradictory government programs and sometimes no less "disturbing" than the National Assembly.

For example, the abolition of the pension reform initiated by Macron.

If France does not continue with reforms, the budget risks getting out of control and what will the European Commission do at that point?

France's debt is now high, over 100% of GDP, and the European executive has ordered Paris to rein in the deficit, which in 2023 has risen to 5.5%, almost double the 3% limit set by the EU.

Therefore, if we want to follow the rules set by the new Pact, significant corrections will be needed, very much in contrast to the dream list of both the left forces and the National Assembly.

So, at worst, a Paris-Brussels clash over compliance with restrictions, at best an act of accountability under the constant bombardment of the Lepenists.

"This result may be better in the short term, but possibly worse in the future", analyzes another source.

"Marine Le Pen can go to the Elysee", he adds.

However, the real nightmare was a France hostile to the European project, with a strategic agenda (approved by the Council) that actually calls for more cooperation, not less.

Whether it's protection, competition, support for Ukraine, steering enlargement towards new aspiring members, the answer seems to be more Europe, not less.

How will this National Assembly vote on these key issues?

The founding manifesto of Viktor Orbán's Patriots, which will be officially born in the European Parliament tomorrow, demands exactly the opposite (there are rumors that the Hungarian Prime Minister has already landed in Brussels, while others say he is traveling to China).

If, as it seems clear, the "Rassemblement National" will expand its ranks together with that of Salvini's League, after the entry of the Danes and the Belgians of Vlaams Belang, the choice of Le Pen will have a different flavor, especially after the surprise meeting of Orban with Vladimir Putin.

But staying in the capital of the EU is every problem at the right time./ Ansa


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