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How Putin's fate is tied to the fate of the war in Ukraine

2023-02-24 23:42:20Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
How Putin's fate is tied to the fate of the war in Ukraine
How Putin's fate is tied to the fate of the war in Ukraine

By Steve Rosenberg, BBC Russia editor

I keep remembering something I heard on Russian state television three years ago.

At the time, Russians were required to support changes to the constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power for another 16 years. To convince the public, the news anchor portrayed President Putin as a captain steering the good ship of Russia through the stormy waters of global turmoil. "Russia is an oasis of stability, a safe harbor. If it wasn't for Putin, what would they have done with us?" - she said.

How much for an oasis of stability and safe harbor was seen later. On February 24, 2022, the Kremlin captain set off in a storm of his own making. And headed towards the iceberg.

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has brought death and destruction to Russia's neighbor. It has resulted in great military casualties for his country. Some estimates put the number of dead Russian soldiers in the tens of thousands.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have been drafted into the army and Russian prisoners (including convicted murderers) have been recruited to fight in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war has affected energy and food prices around the world and continues to threaten European and global security.

All Titanic-sized problems. So why did Russia's president set a course for war and territorial conquest?

"On the horizon were the Russian presidential elections of 2024", - emphasizes political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann.

“Two years before those elections [the Kremlin] wanted a victory event. In 2022 they thought to immediately reach their targets. In 2023 they would instill in the minds of Russians how fortunate they were to have such a captain steering the ship, not only through troubled bridges, but bringing them to new and richer shores. Then in 2024 people will vote. Bingo. What could go wrong?”

Too much, if the plans are based on assumptions and wrong calculations. The Kremlin had expected its "special military operation" to be swift. Within weeks, Ukraine was thought to be back in Russia's orbit. President Putin had seriously underestimated Ukraine's capacity to resist and fight, as well as the determination of Western countries to support Kiev.

The Russian leader still hasn't admitted that he made a mistake by invading Ukraine. Putin's way is to push forward, to escalate, to raise the stakes. This leads me to two key questions: how does Vladimir Putin see the situation after a year, and what will be his next move in Ukraine?

This week he gave us some clues.

His speech to the nation was filled with anti-Western phrases. He continues to blame America and NATO for the war in Ukraine and portray Russia as an innocent party. His decision to suspend participation in the last remaining Russian-American nuclear arms control treaty, New Start, shows that President Putin has no intention of withdrawing from Ukraine or ending his standoff with the West.

The next day, at a football stadium in Moscow, Putin shared the stage with Russian soldiers returning from the front line. In what was a highly choreographed pro-Kremlin rally, President Putin told the crowd that "there are battles now being fought on [Russia's] historic borders" and hailed them as Russia's "brave fighters".

The conclusion? Do not expect any Kremlin turn. This president has no intention of retiring.

"If he doesn't face resistance, he will go as far as he can," believes Andrei Illarionov, President Putin's former economic advisor. "There is no other way to stop it other than military resistance." But are peace negotiations with Putin possible?

"It is possible to sit down with anyone," Andrei Illarionov continues, "but we have a bitter history of sitting down with Putin and making deals with him.

"Putin violated all the documents. Treaty establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States, bilateral treaty between Russia and Ukraine, treaty on the internationally recognized border of Russia and Ukraine, UN charter, Helsinki Act of 1975, Budapest Memorandum. And so on. There is no document he would not violate."

When it comes to breaking deals, Russian authorities have a long list of their grudges to blame on the West. At the top of that list is Moscow's assertion that the West broke a promise made in the 1990s not to expand the NATO alliance eastward.

And yet in his early years in office, Vladimir Putin did not seem to see NATO as a threat. In 2000 he did not even rule out Russia becoming a member of the Alliance one day. Two years later, when asked to comment on Ukraine's stated intention to join NATO, President Putin replied: "Ukraine is a sovereign state and has the right to choose for itself how to ensure its security …” He insisted that this issue will not cloud relations between Moscow and Kiev.

Now the Putin of 2023 is a very different character. Filled with resentment towards the "collective West", he casts himself as a leader besieged in a fortress, repelling the supposed attempts of Russia's enemies to destroy his country. From his speeches and comments – and his references to Russian imperial rulers like Peter the Great and Catherine the Great – Putin seems to believe that he is destined to recreate the Russian empire in one form or another.

But at what cost to Russia? President Putin once earned a good reputation for stability in his country. This has been eroded by increasing military casualties, mobilization and economic sanctions. Several hundred thousand Russians have left the country since the start of the war, many of them young, skilled and educated: a brain drain that will further damage Russia's economy.

As a result of the war, there are suddenly many armed groups around, including private military companies such as Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group and regional battalions. Relations with the regular armed forces are far from harmonious. The conflict between Russia's Ministry of Defense and Wagner is an example of public strife within elites.

Instability plus private armies is a dangerous cocktail.

"Civil war is likely to engulf Russia in the next decade," believes Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor of the Moscow-based Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper. "There are many interest groups that understand that under these conditions there is a chance to redistribute wealth."

"The real possibility to avoid civil war will be if the right person comes to power immediately after Putin. A person who has authority over elites and the determination to isolate those eager to exploit the situation.”

"Are Russian elites debating who is the right man or woman?" I ask Konstantin.

"In silence. With the lights off. They discuss this. They will have their voice.”

"And does Putin know that these discussions are happening?"

"He knows. I think he knows everything."

This week, the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament declared: "As long as there is Putin, there is Russia."

It was a declaration of loyalty, but not of fact. Russia will survive - it has for centuries. Vladimir Putin's fate, however, is now irrevocably tied to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.


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