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Bad poll results: What will be the fate of Germany's oldest party?

2026-02-24 17:12:11Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA SABINE KINKARTZ
Bad poll results: What will be the fate of Germany's oldest party?
Some of the SPD leaders in recent years

For decades, Germany's oldest party has been a stable political force. Meanwhile, the SPD is trying to regain its political relevance.

2026 is an election year in Germany: five of the 16 states will elect new parliaments. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has little reason for optimism. According to opinion polls, it is in danger of losing power in two states - for the first time in decades. The Social Democrats there are only in the single digits in the current polls.

It is not doing well at the federal level either: the SPD has long fluctuated between 13 and 16 percent. What happened to the former people's party that at its peak won the votes of almost every second voter in Germany?

The SPD has lost its workers.

To understand what went wrong with the SPD, we have to look far back. It was founded as a classic workers' party in the second half of the 19th century - as the political representative of virtually disenfranchised factory workers. Long working hours, low wages, precarious jobs, lack of job security and lack of housing characterized their precarious lives.

In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, ordinary workers have long been traditional SPD voters.

The Social Democrats supported a policy that promised education, advancement, and success regardless of background. Today, the traditional working class no longer exists. Well-paid industrial workers have long formed the middle class of society.

The Left Party: Split from the SPD

According to an analysis by the opinion research institute Forsa in November 2025, only nine percent of ordinary workers and the unemployed would vote for the SPD today.

Those who feel socially marginalized today often sympathize with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that is partly far-right. In February 2025, the infratest-dimap institute published data showing that 38 percent of workers vote for the AfD.

Many former SPD voters have also switched to the Left. Bitter for the Social Democrats: The Left was also born out of dissatisfaction with the SPD's social policy under former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD).

With him at the helm, the Social Democrats won the 1998 federal election with almost 41 percent of the vote. Schröder was convinced that the election was not won by the left, but by the political center of society. Faced with high unemployment and a struggling economy, he implemented a radical reform of the welfare state - "Agenda 2010". State social benefits were reduced, protection against dismissal was relaxed, and the low-wage sector was expanded.

The SPD lost half of its voters

The conservative CDU/CSU parties welcomed the reform agenda with enthusiasm. It was a success for the German economy.

However, serious conflicts erupted within the SPD. The party's left wing rebelled and no longer wanted to support Schröder's policies: prominent former SPD members and trade unionists founded their own left-wing party in 2005.

Within ten years, the SPD had lost almost half of its voters, partly to the Greens and the CDU. Angela Merkel, CDU leader and Chancellor, had moved the CDU programmatically towards the political center. Critics spoke of the CDU's "social democratization".

Lack of profile in the "grand coalition"

It became increasingly difficult for voters to see the fundamental differences between the Union and the SPD. This was also contributed to by the fact that the CDU, CSU and SPD governed together in coalition for most of the time from 2005 to 2021. During this period, the SPD accepted numerous compromises and gradually lost its political profile.

Due to the huge loss of voter confidence, demands for a programmatic change came from the left wing of the party, which believed that more left-wing social and tax policies were needed.

The rich and high-earners should bear a greater burden through higher taxes and contributions, while cuts to social benefits should be prevented. However, in the coalition governments in which the SPD participated, hardly any of this could be implemented.

"Traffic light coalition" - negative consequences

Before the 2021 federal election, the SPD was at 16 percent in the polls. Then the CDU made big mistakes and the SPD won. The party had hoped it was back on the road to success.

The opposite happened. The coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), together with the Greens and the FDP, quickly developed into serious conflicts and deadlocks. The so-called traffic light coalition was prematurely dissolved and the SPD's reputation was further damaged.

In the 2025 federal election, it won 16 percent of the vote. The director of the Forsa Institute, Manfred Gilner, spoke after the election of a situation that "existentially threatens" the SPD.

The SPD's new program is turning left.

Despite this, the Social Democrats have rejoined the coalition with the CDU/CSU as a junior partner - and are now facing old problems. They are once again in danger of failing to build their profile alongside the Union.

The SPD is working on a new program document until 2027, in which left-wing social policy should dominate. But how convincing is this?

Given the coalition partner, such demands are not feasible. Under the leadership of party chairman and chancellor Friedrich Merz, the CDU has become significantly more conservative again and has shifted to the right. Faced with an empty state coffers and a very weak economy, the CDU is demanding cuts in social spending and a "new moment on the agenda": a major reform of the welfare state in the areas of pensions and healthcare is needed.

How long will the coalition last?

The SPD also believes that reforms are necessary, but insists that no one should be worse off in the end. This means that the rich will have to pay more in taxes and social contributions. There is support for this. The SPD has recently made small gains in opinion polls on demands for greater social justice.

However, the CDU rejects the tax increase. The CDU and SPD are currently trying to avoid an open conflict due to elections in two states, which are due in March. However, the federal government seems increasingly paralyzed by domestic politics. There is currently only agreement on the proposal to ban children under 14 from accessing social media.

It can be assumed that the coalition situation will be revived - after the elections in both states. The weaker the SPD is in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the greater the pressure within the party to raise its profile and distance itself more clearly from the Union.

Perhaps this can be compared to the image of a drowning man who, in the struggle for survival, is fighting with ever greater strength for survival./ DW


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