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Voxpress:

Why are oil markets no longer panicking over Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz?

2025-06-23 15:50:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Oil markets appear to be starting the week 'relatively cool', given the seismic events in the Middle East, but with only modest price increases.

Investors appear to be betting that there is only a 25% to 30% chance of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil flows.

This is despite the Iranian parliament reportedly approving the shutdown. So why aren't the markets panicking anymore?

First, Iran has threatened to do this before, and it has not succeeded. The decision must also be made by Iran's National Security Council.

Part of the strait also falls into Omani waters, with naval vessels now increasingly sticking to those waters.

And most importantly, the closure could be a bad move for Iran itself – more than 80% of the oil flowing through the strait goes to Asia, so Iran may be reluctant to upset China. Not to mention cutting off the flow of its own oil, a lucrative source of cash.

And finally, there is the transport of liquefied natural gas; if we cut this off, Iran could incur the wrath of producers in Qatar./ BBC


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