Radical philoserbians within Donald Trump's Balkans team

The first weeks of Donald J. Trump's second presidency confirmed the New York Times headline on the day he took office: "The Deal Maker in Chief is back." Even in his foreign policy, it seems to be becoming clear that Trump's leitmotif will remain his "beloved deals."

For example: Ukraine will continue to receive American military aid if it guarantees the US access to its deposits of raw materials such as rare earths and lithium in return. Or the "takeover" of the Gaza Strip to create a "Middle Eastern riviera". Or the Trump classic: A "Trump Tower", this time in the Serbian capital, Belgrade.

The project, which failed in 2012, is now ready to begin construction. The move, which came to fruition 13 years later, was largely driven by Trump's closest adviser, Richard "Ric" Grenell, who was the president's special envoy for the Balkans during his first term and whom the president has now made his "special envoy for missions."

Grenell has close, almost friendly, relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vu?i? and his Foreign Minister Marko ?uri?, who previously served as Serbia's ambassador to Washington. Grenell received a medal from Vu?i? in 2023 for his "balanced approach" to Europe's newest state, the Republic of Kosovo, which Serbia still claims as its own 26 years after the end of the Kosovo war.

In March 2024, the Serbian government, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Arab investors reached an agreement for the Trump Tower Belgrade, which the New York Times estimates will cost half a billion dollars. The plan: The former headquarters of the armed forces of Serbia, or the former Yugoslavia, will be transformed into a luxury apartment hotel complex - with a memorial to the victims of the 1999 NATO airstrike that hit the building. It would be the fifth "Trump Tower" in the world, after New York, Chicago, Manila, and Istanbul.

The potential ambassador - A controversial political figure even by Trump's standards

Politico magazine reported last week that Trump is considering nominating the former Democratic governor of Illinois as U.S. ambassador to Belgrade. Blagojevich, the son of Serbian immigrants, was removed from office in 2009 and three years later sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption.

Trump commuted Blagojevich's sentence during his first term, and he was later released early in 2020. This makes him an ideal candidate for Trump, says Prof. Daniel Serwer, a Balkans expert at the renowned Johns Hopkins University and US negotiator for the Balkans under President Bill Clinton, to DW: "Blago is the perfect man for Belgrade: a deeply corrupt politician who is willing to do whatever Trump wants in order to rehabilitate himself."

In fact, after his dismissal in 2010, Blagojevich participated in Trump's then-running television show "Celebrity Apprentice." After the Republican Party Convention, which elected Trump as the presidential candidate in May 2024, he and Grenell campaigned, especially in communities with Serbian-origin voters in the US, where Trump achieved high support - as well as among Serbian nationalist politicians in Serbia and the neighboring Western Balkan states of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, where Serbs also live.

In the spring of 2024, five American businessmen of Serbian origin attended a reception at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, among them Ranko Ristic, founder of Zastava Arms USA, which exclusively imports firearms from the Serbian firm Zastava Oruzje to the United States. During the reception, Trump introduced Blagojevich as a "great friend" and "close collaborator," Ristic says. He himself had told Trump how the Serbs in Bosnia had to defend themselves against 3,000 mujahideen in the 1991-1995 war.

Blagojevich, on the other hand, met with Vu?i? in Belgrade last week. There, he harshly criticized Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti in the media and accused him of "ethnic cleansing" of Serbs in Kosovo. In 1999, the US, together with NATO allies, used airstrikes to force Serbia to withdraw its security forces from its then southern province to prevent the expulsion of the majority Albanian population from Kosovo. Now Blagojevich has explicitly apologized to Vu?i? for US participation in the Kosovo war. "My country did something terrible to your country in the 1990s," Trump's potential ambassador to Serbia told the Serbian president. "It's no different than what Russia is doing in Ukraine (...) President Trump will work to improve relations between our countries."

US President Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, photo from 2020

Campaign against Kosovo

Trump's close confidant Grenell has also repeatedly criticized Kosovo's current Prime Minister Kurti. He hosted an opponent of the head of government, former Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, in Washington the day before Trump's inauguration. He later posted on KosovoOnline's X channel that "it would not be good for Kosovo" "if Kurti stays in power." Kurti angered Grenell in 2020 by rejecting a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia proposed by the American negotiator.

These extremely positive developments for Vu?i? are countered by the massive protests that have rocked Serbia since early November. In recent weeks, the Serbian president's rhetoric regarding Kosovo has become more radical - perhaps to distract from obvious domestic political problems.

Vu?i?'s Foreign Minister ?uri? described Kosovo in the Berliner Zeitung as "our southern province", in which Serbs are subjected to "constant discrimination and mistreatment". Chief of General Staff Milan Mojsilovi? told the daily "Vecernje novosti" that the Serbian armed forces were ready to "protect" Serbs and other non-Albanians on the territory of our southern province. Saying that there are "indicators of possible destabilization" in Kosovo. Vu?i?, who had called Kurti "terrorist scum", now described him on the Serbian channel Happy TV as a "villain" who "hates Serbs".

It is also about Bosnia.
Dr. Kurt Bassuener, director of the Democratization Policy Council think tank in Berlin, warns DW that not only the territorial integrity of Kosovo is threatened by the aspirations of Greater Serbia, but also that of Bosnia. The EU could react to Belgrade's aggression against neighboring countries by significantly increasing the number of combat troops of EUFOR/Althea.

In this situation, an American team for the Balkans, Grenell-Kushner-Blagojevich, would be a gift to Belgrade – with a direct connection to the White House. Improving Serbia's relations with Kosovo - already difficult - would become even more distant. The numerous contacts between the Trump trio and Serbian government officials, as well as the statements and posts of Grenell and Blagojevich for Vu?i? and against Kurti, are signs of preparations in the US.

The recent Serbian attacks on NATO and Kosovo security forces, as well as the deployment of Serbian troops on the border with Kosovo, were responded to by the EU in 2023 with sanctions - paradoxically against Kosovo. Only the personal intervention of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken with Vu?i? and the great pressure of NATO were able to turn Serbia's tanks back. Today, Western Balkans experts Serwer and Bassuener doubt that the US would militarily stop Vu?i?'s army in an emergency. Serwer also warns that the mere discussion of the partition of Kosovo or Ukraine would encourage Serbian secessionists in Bosnia to take corresponding actions.

"Then it would be up to the Bosnians to react. And in Kosovo, Javelins would be the best defense," Serwer tells DW. Without the supply of highly effective American anti-tank missiles of the "Javelin" type, successful defense against a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was unthinkable. An escalation of potential hotbeds of conflict in the Western Balkans, the EU's "inner courtyard", surrounded on all sides by EU states, is becoming more likely given the current security policy situation. / Alexander Rhotert - Deutsche Welle

Original title: US President's Balkans Team

Rod Blagojevich, ish-guvernator i Illinoisit

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