The expectation of the diaspora vote and the reality so far

2025-01-25 21:40:14Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA DARDAN MALAJ

According to official CEC data, the highest number of approved requests for remote voting from outside the territory are in the Tirana Region with 8,674 citizens and the Fier Region with 6,834 citizens.

What would be the effect of these votes so far, taking the last vote of 2021 unchanged and regrouping the PS/PSD blocs opposite the PD/LSI as part of a joint list?

The projection does not take into account any surprise votes for new parties, considers the fragmentation of the opposition compared to 2021, but also the consumption of the majority by the long-standing government as variables that can cancel each other out in terms of effect.

In 2021 in the Tirana District, the PS/PSD received 19 mandates while the PD/LSI received 17 mandates. In the upcoming elections on May 11, the Tirana District will receive one mandate, reaching a total of 37 mandates. If the calculation were to continue based on the 2021 results, this additional mandate would be received by the majority camp of the PS/PSD, which would reach 20 mandates compared to 17 for the PD/LSI.

Based on the 8674 voters from abroad who have been confirmed registered so far for this district by the CEC, a projection can be made. If 75% of these votes go to the majority camp and 25% to the opposition, the result would continue to be the same 20 PS/PSD and 17 PD/LSI. Nothing changes even if these votes were divided 50% by 50%. The same is true in the variant when 75% of them go to the opposition and only 25% to the majority. The effect so far in this district would be 0. Depending on these scenarios, the last mandate in Tirana would always be won by the PS with 12281, 12222 or 12114 votes.

In 2021 in the Fier District, the SP/PSD received 9 mandates while the DP and LSI received 7 mandates out of 16 in total.

Based on the 6384 voters from outside Albania who have been confirmed registered so far for this district by the CEC, the projection can be continued. If 75% of these votes go to the majority camp and 25% to the opposition, the result remains 9 to 7. The same applies if the votes are divided 50 to 50 or if 75% go to the PD/LSI and only 25% to the majority camp. Again, the effect of this vote so far would be 0. Depending on these scenarios, the last mandate in Fier would always be taken by the PS with 10263, 10795 or 10617 votes.

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