
It's not peace. Maybe it will be. For now it's just a fragile truce, with an uncertain future.
Meanwhile, we should be pleased because the ceasefire that begins Sunday in Gaza is good news. For the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the 33 Israeli hostages who will return to their homes and families.
After 15 months of living amidst bombings and in precarious humanitarian and health conditions for some, and harsh and unsafe imprisonment in tunnels for some.
And it's good news for diplomacy, often ignored because it operates quietly in the midst of wars, for the men and women of Qatar, America, Egypt and others who have worked patiently and hopefully to piece together the complex agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Without giving up, despite repeated steps back.
Donald Trump will take credit for this. In the climate of international servility to the president-elect of the United States – it is not just the CEOs of large American companies who are trying to curry his favor – many will understand this.
And there is no doubt that Trump has provided a decisive political impetus in reducing resistance to the ceasefire in Gaza, especially from Israel.
But a deal like the one that kicks off Sunday cannot be improvised with a blurb at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago.
It must be built in all its steps and details. It is the fruit of the work of the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, who announced it yesterday evening; of the Arab foreign ministers; of the Americans Anthony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, William Burns, whom in four days we will see disappear from the scene – and perhaps we will regret it.
This is Joe Biden's deal.
This is in fact – and the American president – ??the agreement he had announced in May.
The content, the three phases, and the deadlines for the respective accomplishments are the same.
Why did it take another eight months to pass? With their cost in human lives, the destruction, the suffering of Palestinian civilians and hostages, the deterioration of health in the Strip, the costs that Israel also pays anyway.
So why wait so long to get the same result?
Part of the answer lies in compiling the conditions set by Israel and Hamas and all the technical details.
And surely these eight more months of war have served Israel to further degrade the Islamist Resistance movement.
Hamas is weaker today than it was last May. And Israel is not just stronger, it is much stronger, having meanwhile eliminated Hezbollah's threat to the north through Lebanon and Syria, and reduced the size of Iran's power.
There is an objective logic to Israel's acceptance – which had not yet been made official last night – of a ceasefire today rather than eight months ago. But the dominant motivation is political, and this is where the Trump factor comes into play.
Netanyahu had it easy by siding with Joe Biden, the outgoing president, who has now resigned. He may also have wanted to give candidate Donald Trump a helping hand by denying the Democratic administration a foreign policy success.
We will never know what the two leaders said to each other when Netanyahu visited Trump in September. But now he has asked him to close the deal before the inauguration so as not to have the Gaza issue on the table at the beginning of his presidency.
How can we deny it? But that could only be done because the deal was already ready.
However, there is no sign of a ready-made deal on Ukraine, which is why signals from the Trump camp are multiplying: "It will probably take more than six months."
But how long will the ceasefire in Gaza last?
Of the three phases envisaged by the agreement, the first is relatively simple: hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a massive supply of humanitarian aid to the exhausted population of the Strip, a highly technical and limited Israeli withdrawal.
Difficulties will arise with the second, in six weeks, and especially with the third, which envisions a self-governing Gaza without an Israeli military presence.
The obstacle to peace lies above all in this critical passage.
What will Netanyahu do? How will Hamas, which may have regained its power in the meantime, respond?
How will Trump react, if he reacts?
For now, let's settle for the ceasefire that comes on the last day of Biden's presidency: it's no small thing.