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Netanyahu challenges the far right on Gaza, will this moment mark the beginning of the end of his career?

2025-10-10 21:51:23Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
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Neri Zilber – Financial Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described the expected ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages as a "great day" and a victory for his diplomatic and military strategy after two years of war.

But for many analysts, this moment could mark the beginning of the end of his political career.

Although most of Israeli society has lined up behind the US-brokered deal, its far-right coalition partners have opposed the plan, which envisages the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 people sentenced to life in prison on terrorism charges.

What worries Israeli ultranationalists even more is that the agreement calls for a permanent end to the destructive military campaign without achieving the “total elimination” of Hamas and without the possibility of occupying Gaza, a goal that the government’s most radical wings had long dreamed of.

Netanyahu, often accused of prolonging the war to appease his far-right allies, now risks the support that has kept him in power since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

"God forbid that a hostage exchange occurs with the cessation of the war, as Hamas thinks and boasts," Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich wrote on the "X" network.

The agreement passes, but the government remains fragile

Despite opposition from Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the deal passed smoothly through the full cabinet in the early hours of Friday, October 10. Both voted against it, but neither resigned. Ben-Gvir warned only that if Hamas was not completely destroyed, his Jewish Power party would topple the government.

This move also reflects Netanyahu's uncertainty over the content of the agreement.

He insists that only the "first phase" has been agreed upon, the release of hostages in exchange for prisoners and a partial military withdrawal, while other elements of US President Donald Trump's plan, such as the full Israeli withdrawal, the disarmament of Hamas and the creation of an international committee to administer Gaza, have not yet been negotiated.

An Israeli opposition official said:

The real question is: Will anyone declare an end to the war? As long as Netanyahu leaves open the possibility of returning to war, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will not bring down the government…

Soldiers' families demand continuation of the war

Although civil society welcomed the agreement with joy, far-right forums such as "Gvura", which represents the families of fallen soldiers, welcomed the release of the hostages, but demanded that Israel continue its strikes against Hamas "until its complete elimination."

Meanwhile, Trump himself, Netanyahu's most important international ally, has been pressing to end the war, prompting the Israeli prime minister to respond. According to his political relatives, Netanyahu himself is now ready to end the conflict, even if it means the collapse of the coalition and early elections.

Electoral calculations and Trump's role

According to political analyst Nadav Shtrauchler, who has previously worked with Netanyahu, this was the right moment:

It's not a total victory, but the country is already entering an election year, with votes scheduled for October 2026 at the latest!

Opposition leaders have supported the deal, but are waiting to see whether this "first phase" will pave the way for a second phase that will finally end the war and perhaps Netanyahu's government.

An opposition official predicted that elections could be held in March 2026, but Netanyahu may try to postpone them until June.

Yet as Israelis celebrated the deal on Thursday, one thing seemed clear: the most popular politician in Israel today is Donald Trump.

The families of the released hostages publicly thanked the American president, leaving out any mention of their prime minister.

But the fact that Netanyahu is still in power, retains Trump's support, and has led a two-year war in which Israel's regional enemies have been hit hard may still play in his favor.

“There is no better lobbyist for Netanyahu than Trump. His speech in [parliament] this Sunday will be the start of the election campaign,” said Strauchler. “You have to use what you have.”

Asked Thursday evening if he was concerned about Netanyahu's political future after the Gaza deal, Trump said: "Look, this is politics... I think he's very popular... And he's a lot more popular today than he was."


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