By Laura Paddison, CNN
What if humans weren't the first technological civilization on Earth? What if millions of years ago there had been an advanced society that built cities, harnessed energy, and then disappeared? Would there have been any traces left behind that science could discover today?
This is the provocative question that led two scientists to formulate what is known as the “Silurian Hypothesis” – a thought experiment that does not aim to prove that such a civilization existed, but to ask whether we would be able to recognize it if it had existed.
It all started in 2017, when astrobiologist Adam Frank from the University of Rochester was discussing with NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt a completely different question: whether advanced civilizations on other planets face climate change of their own making.
Frank said that there had never been another technological civilization on Earth before humans. Schmidt immediately interrupted him:
“How do you know?”
This question became the starting point for a study published in 2018.
What is the Silurian Hypothesis?
The name comes from the science fiction series "Doctor Who", where the Silurians are an intelligent race of reptiles that lived on Earth long before humans.
Scientists don't claim they existed. The name is simply used to describe an idea: if an advanced civilization had emerged millions of years ago and disappeared, what traces would it have left?
According to them, this is a way to better understand the fate of our civilization.
Why is it so difficult to find evidence?
Even if a civilization had existed, time would have erased almost every trace of it.
The movement of tectonic plates, volcanic eruptions, erosion, and geological processes constantly reshape the Earth's surface.
On the scale of millions of years, cities, roads, and buildings would disappear completely.
Even fossils don't help much. Only an extremely small fraction of organisms are fossilized, and an even smaller fraction are discovered by paleontologists.
For comparison, dinosaurs lived on Earth for about 180 million years, but only a few thousand nearly complete skeletons have been found to date.
A civilization that lasted only 100,000 years would be almost invisible in the 400-million-year history of complex life on Earth.
Chemical traces can survive
Instead of buildings, researchers think the most reliable evidence may be chemical.
Geological layers preserve a "memory" of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans at different times.
If a civilization had burned large amounts of fossil fuels, as humans do today, it could have left a distinct signal in these layers.
Scientists also mention materials that humanity is leaving behind that could be discovered millions of years later:
plastics;
industrial chemicals that do not decompose;
synthetic hormones used in agriculture;
heavy metals in electronics.
These could become the "technofossils" of our civilization.
The mystery of the climate 55 million years ago
One of the reasons that led Gavin Schmidt to think about this hypothesis was an episode known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, about 55 million years ago.
Then global temperatures rose by about 8 degrees Celsius, ecosystems were shaken and large amounts of carbon were released into the atmosphere.
The cause is thought to have been natural – perhaps major volcanic activity or a massive release of methane – but it is not yet known for sure.
The similarities to human-caused climate change today prompted researchers to ask: what if we were to encounter a similar event on another planet one day? How would we know if it was natural or created by a civilization?
Most scientists remain skeptical
The authors of the study themselves do not believe that such a civilization existed on Earth.
Their goal was to define what kind of evidence we would be looking for, not to claim that it exists.
Geologist Jan Zalasiewicz from the University of Leicester calls the hypothesis "a wonderful and very provocative idea," but thinks that an industrial civilization like ours would have left much more visible traces.
According to him, cities, metallurgy, plastics and industrial waste would create a clear mark on the Earth's geological history.
The most important lesson
Regardless of whether such a civilization existed or not, researchers say the hypothesis raises a very real question for humanity.
Are all technological civilizations destined to destroy their planet's climate and disappear?
Or can they learn to live sustainably for millions of years?
As Adam Frank says: “We have been smart enough to create the technology, but we still don’t know if we are smart enough to cope with the climate consequences it causes. Are we just a planetary experiment that is destined to fail?”