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Trump heads to Ankara for key NATO summit

2026-07-07 09:18:13Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Trump heads to Ankara for key NATO summit

US President Donald Trump is headed to Ankara, where NATO leaders are gathering for what could be one of the alliance's most important summits in recent years - not because it is expected to produce any dramatic results, but because it could define what NATO will look like after decades of dominance by American military leadership.

The July 7-8 summit takes place at a time when Washington is openly preparing European allies for a gradual shift in the American military presence on the continent, is pressuring member states to significantly increase defense spending, and is signaling that Europe's security must increasingly become Europe's own responsibility.

Trump is staying in Ankara with well-known complaints that many allies continue to benefit from American defense without contributing enough themselves.

But behind the public rhetoric lies a much deeper debate about NATO's future: how to rebalance the alliance without weakening its deterrent against Russia.

Senior US officials confirmed before the summit that the Pentagon's ongoing review of the US military presence in Europe could lead to a reduction in the number of US forces stationed across the continent.

"It should come as no surprise that we are doing a review of our military presence," a senior US official said. "This review could very well lead to an adjustment of our presence as we seek to shift a greater share of the burden to Europe."

Another senior official told Radio Free Europe on July 6 that this review reflects "global demands" on US forces and insisted that any changes in troop numbers would be guided by strategic, not political, considerations.

A summit that will measure Europe's readiness

For the Trump administration, the Ankara summit is less about declarations and more about concrete results. The White House is looking for evidence that European allies are translating promises into military capabilities.

“We expect all allies to show a clear and meaningful trajectory of growth, both in quantitative and qualitative terms, in defense spending, so that the burden is shared more fairly,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told reporters ahead of the summit. He singled out Poland, Germany, and the Nordic and Baltic countries as examples of allies moving in the right direction.

Trump himself, however, has been less diplomatic.

"I was disappointed in Italy. I was disappointed in the United Kingdom... We were disappointed in Germany and France. Spain is a disaster. Spain is terrible... They think they're getting a free pass," Trump said last week during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Although the US remains NATO's largest contributor in terms of spending, several allies – including Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Norway – now allocate a larger percentage of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defence than Washington.

Following the pledges made at last year's summit in The Hague, NATO member states are expected to present concrete plans in Ankara showing how they intend to achieve defense spending of 5 percent of GDP by 2035.

Matthew Kroenig, former Pentagon special advisor for defense strategy and policy, assessed that this summit will become a "summit of results."

“The question is whether Europeans are really taking on the burden that the Trump administration intends to transfer to them,” Kroenig said on July 6 during a discussion at the Brookings Institution.

While acknowledging that progress has been made, Kroenig said that US officials remain concerned that many allies still lack credible plans to meet agreed defense spending targets, while there are still questions about whether European industrial initiatives can build on capabilities already provided by US manufacturers, rather than strengthen NATO in the most effective way.

Towards 'NATO 3.0'

Beyond budgets, the summit reflects a much broader strategic transformation. Rather than dismantling NATO, many analysts believe Washington is trying to redefine the alliance's role.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, described this process as a rebalancing that, according to him, should have happened sooner, rather than an existential crisis.

“We are going through a necessary period of rebalancing, where Europe is taking on more responsibility, while the United States is redistributing its resources and rearranging strategic priorities,” Kupchan said during a discussion hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations on July 6.

While some analysts describe NATO as an alliance entering a period of strategic uncertainty, Kupchan argued that the alliance's institutional foundations remain intact.

"I don't believe we are witnessing the end of the transatlantic alliance," he said. "The institution remains intact."

However, he warned that Trump's approach has damaged one of NATO's most valuable strategic assets: trust.

"America's greatest strength is its partnerships," Kupchan said. "In Europe there will be more guns and more tanks, but we will face serious problems if no one wants us."

Liana Fix, another senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said she believes Europe is now operating simultaneously in two strategic realities.

Publicly, leaders continue to talk about fairer burden-sharing and a stronger NATO. Privately, however, governments are increasingly preparing contingency plans in case Washington further reduces its military commitment in Europe.

"The Americans are withdrawing faster than the Europeans are able to fill the gap," Fix said, warning that the alliance could face significant capacity shortages, particularly in air defense, strategic logistics and missile defense.

According to her, Ukraine itself is becoming an increasingly central pillar of Europe's future security. "The more the US withdraws from Europe, the more Ukraine becomes a security guarantor for Europe," Fix said.

Ukraine seeks concrete benefits

Ukraine is attending the summit in Ankara at a time when it is facing increasingly intense missile attacks from Russia and a growing shortage of advanced air defense interceptors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the summit, where he will reiterate demands for additional Patriot missile systems after another deadly attack on Kiev.

Tyson Barker, former US deputy special envoy for Ukraine's economic recovery, said he believes Kiev's success will not be measured by political statements, but by concrete military commitments.

"Any commitment to more air defense systems would be extremely important and very much needed," Barker told Radio Free Europe on July 6.

Instead of focusing on debates over Ukraine's NATO membership, Barker said the summit should prioritize increasing armaments production, arms deliveries and cooperation in the defense industry.

"I do not believe that political messages about future relations between NATO and Kiev can bring any positive results at this moment," he said. "The urgent needs are greater commitments on the supply of weapons, especially air defense systems, as well as closer cooperation in the production of defense equipment."

Barker also suggested that Ankara could further strengthen the developing dynamics of cooperation in the Black Sea region between Turkey and Ukraine, through expanding cooperation in the defense industry.

Kroenig pointed out that despite criticism from Europe, the Trump administration argues that it continues to support Ukraine by sharing intelligence information, expanding authorization for strikes deep inside Russian territory, and facilitating Europe's purchase of American weapons.

However, he acknowledged that interceptors for the Patriot system remain among the rarest military capabilities in the world.

"I don't know if the U.S. can or will do anything more," Kroenig said. "This is one of those capacities where demand is extremely high, while supply remains very low."

The Middle East expands NATO's agenda

Although Ukraine dominates the security agenda, the Ankara summit will also highlight NATO's growing attention to the Middle East.

Senior US administration officials told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that President Trump wants allies to take more responsibility for protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, following recent instability in the region.

Barker warned that European governments have already signaled a willingness to contribute to maritime security only once the situation stabilizes and there is a sustainable ceasefire.

The summit's location in Ankara also highlights Turkey's growing geopolitical importance.

Trump is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The meetings reflect Washington's renewed diplomatic engagement in the region after months of heightened tensions.

Experts at the Council on Foreign Relations argue that Turkey's role within NATO is being driven less and less by European security and more and more by its strategic importance in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East as a whole.

Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the summit could also highlight Moscow's declining influence in the region.

"From Russia's perspective," Sestanovich said, "what this summit represents is the US's rapprochement and strengthening of relations with Turkey and Syria."

An alliance undergoing transformation

Despite disagreements over strategy, most analysts agree that the Ankara summit is unlikely to bring dramatic clashes or major breakthroughs.

Instead, the summit is expected to formalize a transformation process that has already begun.

Whether described as fairer burden-sharing, “NATO 3.0” or strategic rebalancing, Washington seems determined to hand over primary responsibility for Europe's conventional defense to European capitals, while preserving the alliance's basic political and nuclear architecture.

The question that remains unanswered is whether this transition can occur without creating dangerous security gaps and weakening the trust that has been the foundation of NATO for more than seven decades.

As leaders gather in Ankara, the challenge is no longer simply that Europe spend more on defense. The challenge is whether NATO can adapt to a new distribution of power while preserving the unity that has long been its greatest strategic advantage./ REL


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