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How important is the Russian withdrawal from Kherson?

2022-11-12 15:08:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
How important is the Russian withdrawal from Kherson?
How important is the Russian withdrawal from Kherson?

Ukrainian officials said Friday that Ukrainian flags were being flown "en masse and everywhere" in the wake of Russia's withdrawal from the southern Kherson region, one of four regions in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in September.

Ukraine's months-long offensive to retake the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the occupation, is reaching its climax. The fall of the city would bring another humiliation to Moscow after a string of battlefield defeats and other setbacks.

Here's a look at what's going on and why Kherson is such an important city for both sides.

WHY IS THE CITY SO IMPORTANT?

Kherson, which had a pre-war population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. The city and surrounding areas fell to Moscow in the first days of the war, as Russian troops quickly pushed their push north from the Crimean Peninsula - the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014.

Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine due to its location on the Dnieper River near the mouth of the Black Sea and the city's role as a major industrial center. Since then, Ukrainian resistance fighters have challenged Russian troops for control of the city, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of Moscow-appointed officials.

Kherson is also at a point where Ukraine can cut off drinking water from the Dnieper River to Crimea. Kiev blocked these vital supplies after annexing the Crimean peninsula, and Putin cited the need to get them back as a reason behind his decision to invade Ukraine.

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?

According to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based medium, in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian troops have gained the upper hand in the northwest, west and northeast of the city of Kherson, advancing up to 7 kilometers in some areas.

"The Russians have moved into positions that they hope will be easier to defend. Ukraine will have to decide if, when and how to continue pushing back Russian forces," said Olga Oliker, director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. "But Ukraine is taking back control... and that's very good news for Mykolaiv, which Russia will now find much harder to bomb. It is an important progress for Ukraine".

WHAT DID THE UKRAINIAN TROOPS FIND?

Ukraine-appointed Kherson regional official Serhii Khlan said that as Russia withdrew its troops from the western bank of the river that divides the region, they had left rubble behind, destroying key infrastructure, including power facilities and bridges.

"Everything will have to be rebuilt," he said Friday in a video conference. "As they were leaving, they were blowing up everything, everything that could hinder the Ukrainian advance.

Mr. Khlan advised civilians to stay at home and said the humanitarian situation was really complicated, with electricity supply interrupted and communications severely limited.

WHAT DOES THE KREMLIN SAY?

The Kremlin remained defiant on Friday, insisting that developments on the battlefield in the Kherson region in no way represented an embarrassment for Putin.

Fearing such a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack, the Kremlin-installed regional administration in Kherson reportedly displaced at least 70,000 residents earlier this month.

WHAT WILL THE LOSS OF KHERSON MEAN FOR RUSSIA?

A withdrawal from Kherson and other areas on the west bank of the Dnieper would destroy Russian hopes of pushing an offensive west to Mykolaiv and Odesa to cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Moscow had also hoped to build a land corridor in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region, the center of a major Russian military base.

"The loss of Kherson will crush all the Kremlin's dreams in the south," said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov. "Kherson is a key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for Russian forces. The Russians will try to keep control of it using all means."

WHAT DOES THE RECOVERY OF KHERSON MEAN FOR UKRAINE?

For Ukraine, recapturing Kherson would set the stage for retaking the Russian-occupied part of the Zaporizhia region and other areas to the south, and would eventually prompt an offensive in Crimea.

Retaking control of Kherson would also mean that Kiev could again cut off water to Crimea.

"After the liberation of Kherson, the Russians will again have problems with drinking water in Crimea", added Mr. Zhdanov.

WHAT WILL CHINA THINK?

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kiev-based independent think tank Penta Center, noted that control of the Kherson region and other southern areas was a huge price for Russia, and losing them would have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad. country.

"If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face another wave of harsh criticism of the military command and the authorities in general from ultra-patriotic circles," Mr. Fesenko said, adding that the fall of the city would further demoralize the armed forces. Russian and possibly fuel opposition to mobilization efforts.

He also said that China and India would see the fall of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness.

"Putin will face a loss of reputation not only domestically, but also in the eyes of China, and this could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin," said Mr. Fesenko. (VOA)


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