The administration of US President Donald Trump has deployed one of the largest military presences in the Caribbean in three decades, with the stated aim of combating drug trafficking. But according to analysts and Venezuelan opposition figures, the mission has taken a new direction: toppling the regime of Nicolas Maduro.
Sources close to the opposition in Caracas tell the Financial Times that the American strategy aims to convince Venezuelan leaders that staying in power will cost them more than resigning.
Instead of a ground intervention, the White House is using military demonstration force, with aircraft carriers, strategic bombers and special forces to exert maximum pressure on Maduro's socialist regime.
“Trump’s strategy is not to land troops, but to demonstrate undisputed military superiority and use it for political purposes,” a Venezuelan opposition figure told the Financial Times.
"The goal is clear, Maduro and his circle must go, one way or another, and quickly."
From the war on drugs to a regime change operation
The American operation, which initially presented itself as a campaign against drug trafficking, has gradually transformed into a regime change operation.
According to senior US officials, the option of using limited military force to "capture or eliminate" Maduro remains on the table.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump is "prepared to use every element of American power to stop drug trafficking and bring those responsible to justice."
Meanwhile, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott called Maduro "not the legitimate leader of Venezuela, but a fugitive from U.S. justice who endangers regional security and poisons Americans."
The clash over Venezuela's resources
At the center of this crisis is a country with the world's largest proven oil reserves, as well as vast wealth in gold, diamonds and coltan. Once a close ally of the United States, Venezuela has grown closer to Russia, China and Iran over the past two decades, since Hugo Chávez came to power.
After Chávez's death in 2013, power passed to Nicolás Maduro, a former bus driver trained in Cuba who currently has a $50 million reward announced by Washington for his capture.
Trump has considered Venezuela an "unsolved case" since his first attempt to oust Maduro during his first term, when he imposed maximum economic sanctions and recognized an alternative government led by the opposition.
Diplomatic maneuvers and internal tension
According to reports last week, the Venezuelan government has offered Maduro's resignation and the transfer of power to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, in an attempt to ease US pressure, a move that has yet to yield results.
Trump, on the other hand, has publicly confirmed the escalation of his stance.
"Maduro has offered everything. Do you know why? Because he will not face the United States," he said on Friday.
According to Vanessa Neumann, a former opposition representative in the US and defense advisor, the administration's goal is to "capture Nicolás Maduro by any means necessary."
Military strength and fear of escalation
In recent weeks, social media has been filled with images of B-52 bombers and US warships operating off the coast of Venezuela. Analysts suggest that Washington is waging an information war to shake up the inner circle of power in Caracas.
Meanwhile, Maduro has ordered military exercises and national tours, warning of a “planned invasion by the gringos.” But the fear in the government camp is real, with senior officials changing their hideouts every night, swapping phones and Cuban bodyguards, and intensifying checks on any form of suspicion within the ranks of the security forces.
A serving Venezuelan general, quoted by the Financial Times, said that "new security protocols are being implemented that require constant movement between Caracas, Valencia and Maracay."
However, the Venezuelan military is considered in poor combat condition, with much equipment unusable due to a lack of maintenance and spare parts.
"The armed forces only look strong because they have suppressed unarmed civilians," said an opposition figure.
"But they are not really ready to face a foreign power."
A crisis with many unknowns
While some analysts warn that the immediate overthrow of the regime could plunge Venezuela into chaos like Libya or Iraq, the opposition insists that the country has a more stable structure and is not at risk of ethnic or religious divisions.
Meanwhile, Maria Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner and central figure of the conservative opposition, is staying in hiding, waiting for the moment for a possible transition of power.
But, as a former US official told the Financial Times, “Trump doesn’t talk about elections or democracy. He will define for himself what ‘victory’ means in Venezuela. He likes spectacular scenes with lots of explosions.”