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Iran war shows NATO is not ready to fight Russia

2026-04-28 16:55:36Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Iran war shows NATO is not ready to fight Russia

NATO has stayed out of the US-Israeli war against Iran, but the conflict has exposed serious weaknesses in the alliance that would make it very difficult to respond in the event of a Russian attack.

European military officials have warned that Moscow could be able to strike a NATO member country by 2029. Against this backdrop, the war in the Middle East is being seen as a severe test of the alliance's military preparedness and political unity.

According to diplomats, former NATO officials and defense experts, five major gaps stood out clearly.

1. Running out of ammunition

The war with Iran showed how fragile NATO's ammunition stockpile is.

The US has used up about half of its stockpile of Patriot missiles, while France warned early on that it was running low on Aster and Mica missiles. European defense companies are also signaling high demand and shortages on the horizon.

Experts warn that if the US shifts more focus to the Indo-Pacific, Europe will be left with very few critical air defense assets. In the event of a conflict with Russia, stocks of expensive defensive missiles could run out within weeks.

For this reason, NATO should invest more in cheaper interceptors and in passive defenses, such as fortified shelters for aircraft.

2. Lack of air superiority

The fact that Iran managed to continue strikes with thousands of missiles and drones despite the American air campaign showed the limits of the idea that a country can be subdued by aerial bombardment alone.

For NATO, this means it must rethink the concept of air dominance and invest more in long-range strike weapons capable of hitting military facilities and drone production deep inside Russian territory.

New discussions have already begun within the alliance about the need for greater "deep strike" capabilities, i.e. deep strikes at a distance.

3. Weak naval fleets

The limited European response to help allies in the Persian Gulf showed how little has been invested in NATO's naval fleets.

The most obvious example was Britain, which delayed the deployment of a destroyer and then returned it to port due to a technical problem. Other countries also have problems with fleet readiness and personnel shortages.

In a conflict with Russia, the fleets would be essential to track Russian submarines and neutralize ships equipped with long-range missiles.

Experts say NATO needs to improve joint ship maintenance, address personnel shortages and invest in more flexible naval assets.

4. The rift is lingering.

The war has deepened divisions within NATO. Europe rejected Trump's demands for military support for Iran, while Washington began considering punitive options against allies.

This has increased concerns within the alliance, especially because Trump has continued to attack NATO and call it a "paper tiger." 

The fear is that, after Iran, Trump could also say of a future crisis with Russia: "This time we're not getting involved," or offer only minimal assistance.

Some former NATO officials say Europe should pursue a more direct approach with Trump, linking support for American interests to Washington's commitment to NATO's defense.

5. Ukraine matters

The war with Iran showed once again that Ukraine's experience is very valuable for NATO.

Within days of the conflict, Ukraine sent drone experts to the Middle East, helping countries there with the knowledge it gained from fighting Russia. Later, Kiev also forged long-term defense partnerships with Gulf countries.

NATO has already increased institutional ties with Ukraine, through joint training centers, industrial projects, and military technology programs.

According to experts, the alliance should build a "belt" of anti-drone assets closer to the Russian border as a first line of defense and further strengthen industrial cooperation with Ukraine.

The conclusion of many NATO diplomats is clear. Ukraine is no longer simply a security beneficiary, but is increasingly acting as a security provider. The war with Iran, they say, proved this. ( Politico )


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