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ANALYSIS/ Middle East powder keg: Fear of a bigger war

2023-10-26 19:17:07Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA CHRISTOPH HASSELBACH
ANALYSIS/ Middle East powder keg: Fear of a bigger war
Israeli tanks near the border with Gaza

The conflict between Hamas and Israel could turn into a wide regional war. Western governments want to prevent this.

The horror scenario would be this: An Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip with ground troops causes a chain reaction of unrest and violence in the region. In its development, more and more groups and states are involved in a spiral of violence, in the end perhaps even the USA and Russia. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the planned ground offensive could last several months. "And in the end there will be no more Hamas." The Israeli government reacted to the brutal terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, in which at least 1400 people lost their lives, children, women and the elderly were killed, more than 200 people were taken hostage.

Seen purely from a military point of view, the Israeli action could be successful, believes Middle East expert Guido Steinberg of the German Foundation in Berlin, Science and Politics. In a Deutsche Welles program, "To the Point" he said that he "believes that the Israeli army is able to destroy the structures of Hamas in the Gaza Strip." But in any case, many civilians would die, no matter how carefully the Israeli army acts.

Civilian casualties as a possible cause

This could be exactly the account of Hamas, analyzes Hans-Jakob Schindler from the international organization Counter Extremism Project. "Hamas wants to produce terrible images of dead Palestinian civilians and thereby draw Iran and its proxies into this conflict," Schindler told DW. The armed groups representing Iran in other countries of the region, such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, are known as "proxies". Hizbollah now regularly attacks Israel with rockets, but is reluctant to launch a large-scale offensive.

ANALYSIS/ Middle East powder keg: Fear of a bigger war
Israeli tanks near the border with the Gaza Strip - it is not known whether the ground offensive will begin

A ground offensive is still not certain, Schindler thinks. But: "If it comes to escalation, (...) then the first would be Hizbullah who would massively attack the north of Israel. The second level of escalation would be that in Syria attacks would be undertaken against American bases there. The third tier would probably be Shia militias in Iraq attacking American or Western targets."

Biden: Israel should not be driven by anger

Such a chain should not even be set in motion. For this, the American president, Joe Biden, has done two things: As a warning to Hezbollah and Iran, he sent two aircraft carriers to the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. And Israel, despite the understanding of the right to self-defense, asked him to refrain. Israel must not repeat the mistakes of the US after 9/11 and the terrorist attacks, Biden said in Tel Aviv. Israel must not "allow itself to burn with anger." Now is the time for "Iran and the Proxies to be shown that an escalation of the situation will certainly lead to a significant weakening of their structures," according to Schindler. On the other hand, the international community must take care to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza so that this conflict does not affect the innocent.

In a phone call with the heads of government and the presidents of France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Canada, Biden was of the same opinion that Israel will be supported and that its right to self-defense is respected. At the same time, respect for international law was demanded, which means: Israel must show care for the Palestinian civilian population.

ANALYSIS/ Middle East powder keg: Fear of a bigger war
Hezbollah fighters with Iranian anti-aircraft weapons

The US is considered unilateral

"If we don't do it, who will" asks Biden at the beginning of the mediation mission and thereby reinforced the claim of the US as a power of order in the Middle East. The problem the US has is that in large parts of the region it is considered biased in favor of Israel.

After the explosion in a hospital in Gaza with many victims, Hamas blamed Israel. US President Biden supported the Israeli version, according to which a deflected Islamic Jihad rocket was the cause of the hospital explosion. This was later expressed by many Western experts. But after the Gaza hospital explosion, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas canceled a planned meeting with the US president.

The image of the US as an ally of Israel creates space for mediation by other countries, for example Germany. After the meeting with Biden failed, the Egyptian president went to a press conference with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. The German chancellor was the only one who, within two days, met both with the Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, as well as with King Abdullah II and President al-Sisi.

The German government, on the one hand, is unhesitatingly on the side of Israel. On the other hand, Berlin is more accepted in the region as a neutral partner. Schindler says this is "one of the best contributions Germany can make here". On the military side, Germany can do little but provide additional military supplies to Israel.

Russia has ambiguous interests

And if things escalate further? Could Russia be drawn into the conflict because of its ties to Damascus and Tehran? Hans-Jakob Schindler does not see this as possible. Russia suits the conflict in the Middle East because it diverts attention from the war in Ukraine. Russia is interested in extending it, so that the focus of the West can be placed there. On the other hand, President Putin will keep this conflict at a low level, "so that he does not see himself forced to use resources in the Middle East, which he already lacks in Ukraine."/ DW

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