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The battle for control of Congress: What's at stake in the November 8 US election?

2022-10-24 23:10:03Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA ASSOCIATED PRESS
The battle for control of Congress: What's at stake in the November 8 US
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In the past two years, Democrats have held majorities in both houses of Congress and the presidency, but they may not have such consolidated power for much longer.

Republicans are favorites to win the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 election, buoyed by Americans' frustration with the economy and advantages in the 10-year redistricting process. But Democrats are working to hold their ground, campaigning to preserve access to abortion and other issues.

The outlook is murkier in the Senate, where Republicans are trying to regain control. Some races in key battleground states are close, prompting Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to say the odds of his party winning a majority are only 50-50.

A look at control of Congress and what will happen if Republicans win a majority in both chambers:

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE REPUBLICANS TAKE THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES?

Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have held the majority since 2018, when they won control in the first congressional elections under then-President Donald Trump. Republicans can take back the House if they win just five seats in dozens of competitive districts, and they are trying to win many more.

History also gives Republicans reason for optimism. In the modern era, the party holding the White House has lost congressional seats in nearly every first-term presidential midterm election.

If Republicans win the House on Nov. 8, their caucus will elect a new speaker and take over on Jan. 3, 2023. They will head each committee and decide which bills will be considered on the floor.

WHAT WOULD A REPUBLICAN-RUN CHAMBER LOOK LIKE?

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has already laid out the "Commitment to America" ​​strategy, a broad outline of economic, border security and other policies that Republicans would propose in the first days of the next Congress.

A return of Republicans as a majority in the House would be a victory for former President Trump, who has fought efforts led by Democrats to hold him responsible for the January 6, 2020 attack on Congress. The vast majority of Republicans expected to return to Washington next year, along with most of those hoping to win a first term, are loyal to Mr. Trump and have followed his example in their policies and positions.

Among those allies are members of the far right such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who was removed from her committee duties by Democrats because of her extreme rhetoric but would be part of a majority of governing body in a Republican-led House. Ms. Greene stood behind Speaker McCarthy as he unveiled the "Commitment to America" ​​strategy in Pennsylvania last month.

WHAT DOES A HOUSE RUN BY REPUBLICANS MEAN FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN?

Democrats' strengths such as access to abortion, addressing the challenges of climate change and stricter gun control would be swept aside immediately. And most, if not all of President Joe Biden's plans would be effectively "dead" for the last two years of his term.

However, nothing becomes law without President Biden's signature. Bills to finance the government, raise the debt ceiling and deal with military issues are necessary for the government to function. These bills are likely to become flashpoints in negotiations between Republicans, Democrats and the White House.

Mr. Biden, who served in the Senate for decades, has often defended his bipartisan credentials and said he wants to work with Republicans. But there would be little appetite for that in a Congress controlled by Republicans who have made opposing President Biden their top priority.

WHAT ABOUT THE SENATE?

While the Senate could swing either way after the election, the majority party is still likely to have a very narrow margin. That means President Biden will be able to find a little more common ground in the Senate, regardless of who is in charge. Most of Mr. Biden's legislative accomplishments in office have been the byproduct of bipartisan negotiations in the Senate.

However, a Republican-led Senate can pass bills sent by a Republican-dominated House, putting political pressure on President Biden. Republicans would regain control of the committees and, with it, the power to conduct investigations and oversight of the administration.

A Republican Senate could also make President Biden's job more difficult by blocking or delaying the passage of presidential nominees to the judicial and executive branches.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE DEMOCRATS WIN?

If Democrats hold the Senate and Republicans win the House, the two chambers are unlikely to find much common ground. But Republicans may try to win over more moderate Democratic senators on some legislation.

If Democrats were able to hold the House and Senate, they would likely restart negotiations on some of President Biden's agenda items that were never passed, including his new package of social and economic programs that stalled from the internal disputes of the Democrats.

WHAT DOES THE MAP OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LOOK LIKE?

Most House constituencies are noncompetitive, thanks to a redistricting process that allows state legislatures to draw districts if they choose. Many legislatures draw districts to favor one party or the other. However, dozens of seats are up for grabs, including many held by Democrats who won in outlying districts in 2018, giving the party a majority for that year.


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