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Analysis/ Iran vs. Israel: Who has the military advantage?

2024-04-20 08:28:49Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Analysis/ Iran vs. Israel: Who has the military advantage?

Iran and Israel have traded attacks and threats against each other in recent weeks, raising concerns about the possibility of all-out war between the sworn enemies.

Israel launched strikes against Iran on April 19, almost a week after Tehran's unprecedented missile and drone attacks on Israeli soil.

Iran's attack was in response to an airstrike that killed seven Iranian commanders at the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1. Iran holds Israel responsible for that attack, but the latter has neither confirmed nor denied anything of the sort.

In the event of a major direct conflict, Israel would have a military advantage, both in terms of defense and attack, experts estimate.

But they believe that the threat posed by the Iranian arsenal of drones and missiles should not be underestimated.

Being under sanctions for several decades, Iran has invested heavily in the development of its domestic weapons programs, which has resulted in cheap and effective drones, but also advanced ballistic missiles.

John Krzyzaniak, a researcher at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, said Iran's missiles "pose a serious threat" to Israel.

Meanwhile, Iran's combat and suicide drones "could wreak havoc on the civilian population" if launched in large numbers, he said.

Still, Israel is at the forefront.

In addition to Israel's advantage over Iran, in terms of operational and intelligence, this country also has equipment to protect against nuclear attacks, experts have said.

Israel is also believed to possess nuclear weapons, and according to the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, the country is estimated to have 90 nuclear warheads.

During the April 13 attack, Iran launched over 300 drones and ballistic missiles at Israel.

Tehran has claimed it has not used some of the state's most advanced weapons. The attack is believed to have been well thought out, so that there is no major damage to civilians or infrastructure.

Israel has said that almost all Iranian drones and missiles have been shot down with the help of the United States, Britain and Jordan.

Some of the rockets penetrated Israeli defenses and hit an airbase, causing very little damage, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

Fabian Hinz, senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Iran's decision to launch more than 100 ballistic missiles was "pretty big" because of the logistics and human resources involved.

"Actually, I'm not sure that something like this has happened before on the Iranian side, and it makes me wonder how far it could go," Hinz told Iran's Radio Free Europe Service.

Israel's defense systems have "performed well" against Iranian missiles, said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East defense specialist at defense intelligence firm Janes.

But Binnie said the durability of Iranian weapons is believed to have played the biggest role.

US intelligence has estimated that half of Iran's missiles have either failed to launch or suffered in-flight failures.

Israel's advanced aircraft offer this country another advantage in aerospace.

However, Israel faces numerous obstacles, experts say, including a lack of aerial fuel tankers.

Israel also has to get permission from several countries for its equipment to pass through certain airspaces before it reaches Iran.

Experts believe that if war breaks out, Israel is likely to launch long-range missiles against Iran.

On the other hand, Tehran's air defenses are not battle-tested.

Experts have said that given Israel's military advantage, Iran is likely to continue unconventional warfare with asymmetric capabilities.

This includes the engagement of the "Axis of Resistance", the network of militant groups supported by Iran, which oppose and sometimes fight Israel./REL


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