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Analysis/ The Chinese balloon darkened the diplomatic skies

2023-02-12 19:58:07Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Analysis/ The Chinese balloon darkened the diplomatic skies

American citizens, for the first time, saw something tangible from China that challenges their national security: a giant white balloon. For several days, it flew over the skies of the United States, becoming the object of endless curiosity from the public: What is it? What are you doing? And whose is it?

The Pentagon then said it was a military balloon from China that had espionage purposes, and President Joe Biden ordered its downing.

"I told the Department of Defense that I want to take it down as soon as possible. They concluded that we shouldn't shoot it down on the ground, that it's not a serious threat, and that we should wait until it passes over water," Biden said.

China's Foreign Ministry said the balloon was civilian and had been used for meteorological purposes. Spokeswoman Mao Ning said she regretted having "unintentionally" entered US skies and condemned its downing.

"China is a responsible country. We have always scrupulously observed international laws and respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries," Mao said.

The balloon incident prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cancel a visit to Beijing on February 5 and 6 that both countries had hoped would ease their strained relationship.

"The presence of the Chinese balloon in US airspace is a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law. It is an irresponsible act and this action by China, on the eve of my planned visit, is harmful to the discussions we have planned," said Blinken.

The US and China have strained relations over a range of issues, including espionage, trade, Beijing's military presence in Taiwan and abuses of the rights of Uyghurs and other mainly Muslim minorities in the Chinese province of Xinjiang.

However, this is not the first time that Chinese balloons have crossed US airspace – during this administration or the one before it – but such information has not been made public until now. US Air Force General Glen VanHerck himself has said that the military learned about those flights after the intelligence community gathered the facts and notified him.

Yes, why this time the balloon has received so much attention? Gabriel Wildau, political risk analyst from China at the Teneo Institute, speaks on Radio Free Europe's Expose program:

"The difference this time is that this balloon suffered a technical problem and flew lower. For this reason, it could not be kept a secret, because it was seen from the ground, with the naked eye. This has forced the Biden administration to speak publicly about this balloon and reveal that other balloons have passed through US airspace in the past," says Wildau.
Balloons are one of the oldest forms of surveillance technology. Japan, for example, used them to drop bombs on the US during World War II. They were also used by the USA and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Experts say China now has more sophisticated surveillance technology. The use of the balloon, according to them, could have been a signal to the Americans, or a test of how they will react. Christopher Twomey, security expert at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, explains more about Expose:

"China's behavior has become increasingly provocative in recent years, and has worsened with the COVID-19 pandemic. [Balona] is just a clear example of those provocations. When American citizens in some states look to the sky and see Chinese espionage... I think that's a very powerful sign. I think this will prevent the Biden administration from working with China."
China, which has suffered major economic shocks from the pandemic, has signaled that it wants to improve relations with the West as early as late last year, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Beijing and then when Chinese leader Xi Jinping has offered a message of cooperation at the G20 summit in Bali. Blinken's planned visit also had this purpose. Moreover, China has also invited the US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, to visit. And the flight of the Chinese balloon into the skies of the US does not seem to go in favor of these stated intentions. Experts explain it differently. Tong Zhao, from the Carnegie Institution, talks about Expose:

"Personally, I think it was probably an accident. I don't think China intentionally allowed the balloon to violate US airspace. Such a thing carries great political risk. I don't think it's a wise thing for politicians to deliberately allow it."

But security expert Christopher Twomey mentions several other possible theories.

"There are two possible explanations. Either the [Chinese] military does not agree with the will of the political leadership to improve relations [with the US], or the political leadership does not have strong control over the military in terms of engaging in this kind of espionage. It is probably routine for China's military to do these types of surveillance, and it is challenging for Xi Jinping to control them on a daily basis. But either way, it should be troubling from an American perspective," Twomey says.
US officials have not said what data the Chinese balloon may have collected or whether it caused any damage to fragile US-China relations. But Gabriel Wildau, from the Teneo Institute, says that the balloon definitely adds fuel to the fire.

"There are many factors that have fueled tensions between the US and China, and they certainly haven't disappeared. It is possible that tensions will escalate. I'm not sure the balloon incident will cause a major escalation. It will give voice to the noise so far. It will feed the general anti-China sentiment and distrust of China, which is very strong in Washington," says Wildau.

In 2021, American intelligence has published a report, where it has estimated that China poses the greatest threat to the USA. The report did not foresee any military confrontation with China, but estimated that its power struggles will intensify with espionage, intelligence operations and cyber attacks.

The American Pew Center, on the other hand, has published the results of a survey in September of last year, according to which more than three quarters of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of China. The survey was conducted in different periods from 2020 to 2022.
Some experts say that the world is in the era of a new cold war. The US is setting up military bases and conducting frequent naval exercises near what China claims are its territorial waters. China, on the other hand, is developing some of the most sophisticated cyber espionage technologies.

Tong Zhao, of the Carnegie Institution, says the balloon incident could turn into a defining moment of the new cold war if policymakers do not exercise restraint and caution.

“[This incident] could send bilateral relations on a downward trajectory, to a point of no return. The current environment is so challenging and hostile. I think the risk is definitely real, but I hope politicians will be rational and act with cool heads to reduce tensions," says Tong.

What direction the events will take remains to be seen. Media in the US have quoted several officials as saying that the Chinese balloon was equipped with multiple antennas, which had the capacity to pick up communication signals. According to them, the US is considering taking action against several groups linked to the Chinese government that have been involved in the balloon flight. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said that both sides should remain calm. Blinken, on the other hand, said that he will visit Beijing "when the conditions allow", but did not specify more./ REL


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