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Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?

2023-07-07 23:42:50Fokus SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?

– The world broke its all-time high temperature record on July 4, reaching a global average temperature of 17.18 °C, according to data from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute.

- Record temperatures have been exceeded in many countries this year and climate scientists say 2023 could become the hottest year on record.

-Increased carbon emissions and climate change are the main factors behind this forecast, as well as the expected return of the El Niño weather phenomenon*.

The United Kingdom, Vietnam, Poland, Spain, China, Latvia, Myanmar, Portugal, Belarus, the Netherlands, Thailand are just some of the countries where temperature records have been broken this year.

And on July 4, the planet experienced its hottest day on record, with the global average temperature reaching 17.18°C, according to the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, Forbes reports.

This breaks the previous day's record of 17.01°C and follows news of the warmest June worldwide since records began, according to the BBC.

Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere experienced the warmest April on record and the warmest month ever, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Information (NOAA). The average temperature during the month was 0.9°C above the 20th century average.

And globally, 2023 saw the second warmest March on record, according to NASA, NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Information, C3S).

New temperature record in 2023?

Climate change is playing a major role, leading the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to say, for the first time, that global temperatures are more likely to move more than 1.5°C above pre- industrial, in the next five years.

Another major factor is the anticipated return of the El Niño weather phenomenon. The WMO says this combination will push global temperatures to a new record in the next five years, while climate scientists from a number of other organizations say it could happen within this year or 2024.

"El Niño is usually associated with record temperatures globally," explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. "Whether that will happen in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known, but I think it's more likely than not."

The hottest year on record in the world is 2016, during the return of El Niño. And the world's eight hottest years on record have all been in the last eight years, a trend that has coincided with rising CO2 emissions, as the charts below show.

This year looks set to bring together El Niño and increased CO2 emissions. Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 0.9% to a record of more than 36.8 gigatons last year, the International Energy Agency says.

And the world's two largest economies show no sign of slowing down: US energy-related carbon emissions are projected to rise this year, and China's carbon emissions hit a new high in the first quarter of 2023.

Temperature records have already been broken this year

The rapid increases in temperatures during March were partly due to increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Sutherland says.

And in April, global ocean temperatures continued to set a new record for the month, 0.86°C above the long-term average, NOAA points out. "This marked the second warmest monthly ocean temperature for any month on record, just 0.01°C behind the record warmest ocean temperatures recorded in January 2016," he adds.

Other new temperature records for this year include the United Kingdom, which experienced its hottest June ever; Vietnam, which has reached just over 44.1°C, Myanmar, reaching 43.8°C, the highest temperature of the decade; and Spain and Portugal, which broke April records in certain cities.

Many European countries have also broken January temperature records this year.

In mid-May, temperatures in the western US and Canada rose above levels normally recorded in late July, causing wildfires.

A "heat dome" weather system is hitting the area, when the atmosphere forms a lid that prevents hot ocean air from escaping, revealing "clear fingerprints of climate change," according to Climate Central, an independent group of scientists.

Extreme weather ranks as the second biggest risk facing the world in the next two years and the third biggest risk in the next 10 years, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report 2023.

The biggest risk in the next 10 years is failure to mitigate climate change.

"Heat waves and droughts are already causing mass mortality (a single hot day in 2014 killed more than 45,000 foxes in Australia)," the report said. "As floods, heat waves, droughts and other extreme weather events become more severe and frequent, a wider range of populations will be affected."

* The term El Niño ('boy' in Spanish) refers to the warming of the ocean surface, currents of extremely warm surface water from the Pacific Ocean, towards and along the west coast of South America, which prevents the upwelling of cold water from deep, rich in nutrients and disrupts typical regional and global weather patterns . / World Economic Forum


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