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The heat is costing Albania millions: 41.5 million Euros for energy, agriculture is being hit and vegetables are becoming more expensive

2026-08-01 15:14:27Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

In the first months of the year, Albania had energy to sell. In the summer, it is paying 41.5 million euros to import it, at least so far. This turn is not unusual. It has been repeated over the years, as the dependence of domestic energy production on rainfall and hydropower remains high. This time it is happening while the demand for energy is increasing due to high temperatures and tourist influx.

At the same time, storms and hail have damaged agricultural production, while vegetable prices rose by 8.5% in June, right at the peak of the domestic season.

The common denominator is hotter and more unstable weather. El Niño is part of this backdrop, but not a sole explanation for every heat wave, storm, or price spike.

"El Niño affects the global climate, but its impact on the Mediterranean and Albania is not direct," says Anira Gjoni, an expert in the Department of Meteorology at the Institute of Geosciences.

According to her, meteorological conditions in the country are mainly determined by atmospheric systems that develop over the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Europe, as well as by regional air mass circulation. These systems can amplify, change or attenuate the signal associated with El Niño.

This makes it difficult to separate the effect of the phenomenon from the longer-term trend of climate change. However, the economic impact of above-normal temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall is becoming more measurable.

Record consumption changes the energy balance

 For several weeks in June, temperatures in Albania were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above the multi-year average. The country was on the fringes of the heat wave that hit Western and Central Europe the hardest, but the anomalies were enough to add pressure on the energy system.

"The increase in temperatures in our country was 3–6 degrees above the multi-year average during the relevant weeks of June," says Gjoni.

She explains that the episodes of high temperatures were favored by the penetration of very warm masses of subtropical origin from North Africa. According to her, these conditions are mainly related to the atmospheric configuration over the Mediterranean and not to a direct influence of El Niño.

Daily energy consumption peaked at around 25,000 megawatt-hours in June, according to the Distribution System Operator. Compared to the same month last year, the increase was 13.9%.

In the first six months of 2026, consumption reached 4.4 million megawatt-hours, up from 4.1 million a year earlier, an increase of about 10%.

High temperatures and increased tourist activity are increasing the use of air conditioning and the load on the network. Over 1,000 employees have been placed on standby for the summer season, while 136 groups have been deployed in the field to respond to defects and avoid interruptions.

But the main cost does not lie only in the maintenance of the network. The Albanian Power Corporation has contracted 331,200 megawatt-hours of energy for the period from July 1 to September 30. The weighted average price was 125.47 euros per megawatt-hour, while the total value of the contract amounted to about 41.5 million euros.

Just a few months ago, the situation was the opposite. High flows in the Drini cascade enabled KESH to produce more energy than the domestic market demanded. From January to April, the company sold 456,945 megawatt-hours, collecting about 33.15 million euros, including VAT.

A double blow to agriculture

In agriculture, the risk is not only related to drought. It also comes from the rapid transition from periods without rainfall to short, intense storms. “Longer dry periods, interrupted by short episodes of intense rainfall, are one of the most likely scenarios,” says Ms. Gjoni.

According to her, under conditions of higher temperatures, the atmosphere has the ability to hold more water vapor. This can favor concentrated precipitation in short intervals, increasing the risk of flash floods and urban flooding.

For the months of July and August, forecasts do not show a strong trend for precipitation to be significantly above or below the climatic normal. It is expected to remain uneven in time and space, with dry intervals interrupted by local episodes.

"The reliability of seasonal forecasts is higher for temperature than for precipitation," says Gjoni.

This combination is particularly costly for farmers. Hot spells increase the need for irrigation and production costs. Storms can damage crops in a matter of minutes, often on the eve of harvest. In early July, hail hit wheat, barley and onion fields in the Maliq field.

Farmers reported significant losses and, in some cases, damage to more than half of their produce. In areas of Elbasan, fruit trees, vineyards and other crops were damaged.

In Zavala, reports from the field spoke of severe damage to apple, plum and grape production.

In Kolonjë, vineyards were affected. The storms also caused losses in livestock farming. A lightning strike killed 150 heads of cattle on a farm in Delvinë, while in the Maliq area another strike killed about 30 sheep and goats. There is no full financial balance sheet for these events yet. However, for small farms, the loss of a seasonal crop or a herd of cattle can wipe out the entire year's income.

The risk is higher because production is not insured and the cost remains with the farmer or is shifted to the public budget through compensation claims in those cases when deemed reasonable.

Prices rise at the peak of supply

The production cuts come at a time when vegetable prices are already showing strong increases. According to INSTAT, the “Vegetables, greens and legumes” group rose by 8.5% in June compared to a year earlier. The rate was almost triple the average food inflation rate of 3%.

The increase is unusual for a month that coincides with the peak production of many local crops. Under normal circumstances, the increase in seasonal supply should lower prices. This time, the opposite happened. Weather is not the only factor.

Exports, transport costs, labor shortages, trading structure, and middlemen's margins also affect the final price. However, high temperatures, the need for more irrigation, and hail damage are creating additional pressure on production.

The heat also fuels the fire bill

In July, AKMC reported operations to deal with 16 fires spread across several regions of the country. In Shëngjin, on July 13, the flames required the engagement of seven firefighting vehicles, the Armed Forces, and the intervention of a military helicopter.

The agency also reported operations in other areas, including the village of Klos, indicating that the danger was not limited to a single hearth. Prolonged heat and drying vegetation make fires faster, more costly and more difficult to contain.

In tourist areas, the cost goes beyond the burned areas. It affects businesses, the tourist season and public finances, as each operation requires personnel, vehicles, fuel and, in the most severe cases, air support, and this has been clearly seen in recent years when large areas of the seaside have been engulfed by fires.

The initial cause may be human, but higher temperatures multiply the consequences. The longer the heat lasts, the more fires move from seasonal episodes to an economic hazard that recurs every year.

El Niño is not the only cause

“El Niño and climate change are two different processes that operate simultaneously,” says Gjoni. El Niño is a natural, cyclical and temporary phenomenon, which affects climate variability from one year to the next. Climate change represents a long-term trend of increasing temperatures, mainly associated with the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

"The high temperatures that are being recorded cannot be attributed solely to El Niño," the expert says. "It may temporarily amplify warming, but it acts on a climate that is already warming."

Even the forecasts are more certain for temperatures than for precipitation. Temperatures are expected to remain above multi-year averages over the coming months, while there is no clear signal for precipitation whether it will be above or below normal. It may remain uneven in time and territory.

This uncertainty has its costs. Energy companies must secure imports before they know exactly how flows will change. Farmers must invest in irrigation, even though production may be hit by hail later. Municipalities must simultaneously prepare for water shortages, fires, and flash floods.

El Niño may pass. The country's economic exposure to heat and extreme weather will remain. In the end, the bill is not measured only in degrees Celsius. It shows up in millions of euros in energy imports, in lost production in the fields, and in vegetables costing more at the market.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the waters of the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. This warming alters winds and rainfall, affecting the weather in many parts of the world.

In some places it can bring drought and higher temperatures, while in others it can bring heavy rainfall and flooding. In Albania, its impact is usually indirect and blends with the atmospheric conditions of the Mediterranean and Europe./monitor.al


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