The "return" of the EU to the Balkans, to gain friends and influence

2022-10-29 22:05:40Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ursula von der Leyen

The EU turns its eyes again to the Balkans to gain friends and influence

The European Union has embarked on another goodwill tour of the Western Balkans to rally support for the bloc and ensure that Europe's historic box will not side with hostile Russia or strategic rival China in the world of geopolitics.

During her whirlwind six-nation tour, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a stop on Friday in Serbia, by far the most important country in the southern region and one that has shown little regard for solidarity in joining the EU sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

Von der Leyen said that with the war changing Europe's security landscape, it is "of great importance" that the EU invests further in the Western Balkans.

"Let me assure you that the European Union is, and will remain, Serbia's most important political and economic partner," she said during a visit to a gas interconnector connecting Serbia and Bulgaria.

After announcing 500 million euros in aid on Thursday to help Western Balkan countries deal with the energy crisis fueled by the war in Ukraine, Von der Leyen pledged 165 million euros in grants to Serbia.

For years, the 27-nation EU has been ambivalent about the Western Balkans: it has sought to draw them close as allies and deter foreign interference, but at the same time, it has kept them at a distance. as their weaker economies and political institutions are far from ready to integrate seamlessly into the EU's common market of open trade and Western democratic ideals.

The result has been frustration for the nations of the Western Balkans, sometimes bordering on alienation. And Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine has only accelerated matters.

"This is a matter of strategic interests and we only have one chance to get it right. So let's not lose it," Katalin Cseh of the liberal group Renew Europe told the EU legislature last week.

"Russia and China understand the strategic importance of the Western Balkans as well as we do. It's just that the war is right on our doorstep," she added.

The region consisting of Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia has long been a political battleground for world powers, sometimes literally. A gunshot in Sarajevo, Bosnia, in 1914 started World War I, which toppled empires, changed maps, and eventually led to World War II, after which the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as superpowers.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Yugoslavia, the dominant power in the region, suffered the same fate. This led to devastating wars in the 1990s that killed over 130,000 people, displaced millions, devastated economies and sparked ethnic hatreds that continue to this day.

Although the EU is by far the largest investment and trading partner in the six-nation region, Von der Leyen has completed her work in Belgrade, where right-wing and former anti-Western populist president Aleksandar Vucic has governed for 10 years. strengthening its positions while also allowing the spread of Russian influence.

For years, the EU has mentioned the prospect of membership and subsequent prosperity for the Balkan nations. But that promise was somewhat damaged this year when the EU allowed Ukraine into the fast lane as a candidate country, while progress on membership for Western Balkan countries has largely stalled.

This has turned some Balkan countries into skeptics of the EU.

Serbia's line with Moscow worries the bloc the most, especially since Vucic has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia.

"Serbia should increase its efforts in aligning with EU positions," said EU enlargement commissioner Oliver Varhelyi.

Von der Leyen said that Serbia is one of the most advanced countries on the European road, but insisted on the importance of respecting the EU's foreign policy.

"At the end of the day, joining the European Union means sharing the same values, having the same directions in geopolitical decisions," she said, turning to Vucic. "We want to rely on you, on Serbia, as a reliable partner".

Despite EU aid, recent polls have suggested that support for Serbia's EU integration has fallen since the start of the war in Ukraine. Polls show that only around 30-35% of respondents now support EU membership, compared to 57% in a government poll last year.

Some blame a pro-Russian streak in the Serbian media, which is fueling anti-Western sentiment. In addition, there are Western fears that Russian influence will also poison Serbia's Balkan neighbors, particularly through ethnic Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik in Bosnia. In both Serbia and Montenegro, the Russian Night Wolves biker group, which is close to Putin, is seen as having a hand in anti-Western actions.

While some Balkan countries have significant historical ties to Russia for centuries, the same cannot be said for China. As the Asian power is extending its influence across the globe, it has also reached countries like Serbia and Montenegro.

"Chinese loans are Beijing's main foreign policy tool to strengthen its position in the region," says a study by the EU Parliament. These loans have clauses that if the loans cannot be repaid, "China may seek political favors or exercise unfavorable contractual clauses, such as seizing assets or even land."

EU estimates for Chinese investments in Serbia until 2021 speak of a figure of 10.3 billion euros.

Chinese companies are involved in building roads, bridges and other major infrastructure projects in Europe and elsewhere that are financed through Chinese loans. The EU has warned that Chinese companies and banks fuel corruption in the already volatile Western Balkans because they make state-to-state deals without competition.

In Serbia, Chinese companies now own the largest steel plant and copper and coal mines, while building roads and bridges.

Among the most controversial Chinese projects in the Western Balkans has been a highway linking Montenegro's Adriatic coast with the Serbian border that was far beyond the small country's reach.

Montenegro took out a $944 million loan in 2014 but was later unable to repay it as construction dragged on and debts piled up, plunging the country into a financial crisis. The Balkan country of just 620,000 people eventually reached an agreement with a French bank and two US banks to restructure the Chinese loan and has since made its first debt payment. The first part of the highway was inaugurated this year.

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