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Revenge now, later or never: What could be Iran's next move after the US attack?

2025-06-22 22:02:44Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA FRANK GARDNER
US attack on Iran

By Frank Gardner – BBC Security Correspondent

Iran has responded harshly to US airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities, promising "endless consequences." But in such cases, actions matter, and heated discussions have already begun within Iran's political elite about what their response will be.

Will they escalate the conflict by retaliating against US interests, or will they do as President Donald Trump has told them to do, namely talk, which in practice means ending Iran's uranium enrichment?

This internal debate will take place at a time when many senior Iranian commanders are looking at their "heads", worrying that they could be the next target of Israeli attacks or perhaps have a spy within them who has betrayed them to Mossad, Israel's spy agency.

Broadly speaking, there are three different strategic paths open to Iran at this point. Each carries its own risks, and the question that will be asked most is about what matters most to the Islamic Republic: Will the regime survive?

Strong and swift revenge

Many of them will be out for blood. Iran would be described in just one word for now: Humiliated. First by Israel and now by the nation it calls "the Great Satan," referring to America.

For ten days now, Iran has been exchanging fire with Israel, but the response to the US brings a whole new level of danger, not only for Iran, but for the entire region.

Tehran is believed to have half of its original stockpile of 3,000 missiles after the attacks on Israel. Its target list includes about 20 US military bases located across the Middle East.

The closest is the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, which is based in Mina Salman, Bahrain. But Iran may be reluctant to strike a neighboring state in the Arabian Gulf. More likely, it could use the militias it supports in Iraq and Syria to attack one of the US bases in At-Tanf, Ain Al-Asad or Erbil.

When Trump ordered the killing of Quds Force leader Qassem Suleimani in 2020, Iran retaliated by targeting American military personnel in Iraq, but failed to kill anyone.

Iran could launch “swarm attacks” on the US Navy using drones and fast torpedoes. The Revolutionary Guard Navy has been practicing this for years.

The goal, if this path is taken, is to overwhelm US naval defenses through sheer numbers of attackers. Tehran could also ask its allies in Yemen, the Houthis, to resume attacks on Western ships sailing between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

There are also economic targets that Iran could strike, but that would make it an antagonist to its Gulf Arab neighbors, who had recently reached a way of living with the Islamic Republic.

The biggest and most damaging blow would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supplies pass every day. It could do this by laying naval mines and creating a deadly hazard to both military and commercial navies.

Then we move on to hacking. Iran, along with North Korea, Russia, and China, have a sophisticated cyberattack capability. By deploying malware on American networks or businesses, they can cause significant damage.

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This means waiting until current tensions have subsided and launching a surprise attack at a time of Iran's choosing, when American bases are not on maximum alert.

Such attacks could also target US diplomatic, consular, or trade missions. They could even extend to the assassination of specific individuals.

The risk for Iran in this case would be that it would reawaken new American attacks at a time when ordinary citizens were returning to normal life.

Don't take revenge at all.

It would take great restraint from Iran to overcome this situation. It could choose the path of diplomacy and rejoin negotiations with the United States, despite Iran's Foreign Minister stressing that they did not walk away from the talks, but that it was Israel and the United States that destroyed them.

But resuming US-Iran negotiations in Muscat, Rome or elsewhere would only make sense if Iran were willing to accept the red line demanded by both the US and Israel. That means that to maintain its civilian nuclear program, Iran must send all its uranium abroad for enrichment.

Inaction after such a strike makes the Iranian regime look weak, especially after all the warnings of dire consequences if the US were to attack. In the end, it may decide that the risk of weakening control over its population outweighs the cost of further US attacks.

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