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Difficult visit: Scholz meets Erdogan

2024-10-19 16:43:32Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA SABINE KINKARTZ
Difficult visit: Scholz meets Erdogan
Scholz and Erdogan

Chancellor Scholz is staying for a visit to Turkey. There is a lot to talk about between the German chancellor and the Turkish president - but also different interests. The main topics are the war in Ukraine, migration, the situation in the region.

Tense and burdened or confident and strong? 100 years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between Germany and Turkey, it is almost impossible to summarize the relations between the two countries so briefly. If you ask political science researcher Jens Bastian of the CATS Center for Turkish Applied Studies, he talks about the "multiple shades" shaping German-Turkish relations. "The relationship cannot be described only at the level of government elites in Ankara and Berlin. The Turkish community in Germany is an important factor in bilateral relations, be they political, economic, cultural or sports," Bastian analyzes for DW.

Germany has been considered Turkey's most important trade partner and the most important foreign investor in this country for years. More than three million people of Turkish origin live in Germany. "Business associations and individual companies remain engaged, local political exchange within city partnerships is working," says Bastian.

Tones of discontent at the highest political level

The situation at the government level is completely different. Looking back: In early July 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sat in the stands of the European Football Championship in Berlin for an evening. Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not appear. This is probably also because his position was exactly at the time of a diplomatic scandal. A Turkish national team player showed the "Turkish Nationalist Salute" on the field, the identifying symbol of the "Ülkücü Movement", a right-wing extremist movement. The movement's political wing, the MHP, not only sits in the Turkish parliament, but is also an alliance partner of President Erdogan's AKP.

Different positions, especially regarding Israel

Some German politicians reacted with outrage after the nationalist salute. Ambassadors were summoned, Turkey accused Germany of xenophobia. Erdogan spontaneously flew to Berlin to show his presence at the Turkish team's next game.

But there were problems before. During his visit to the German chancellor – just weeks after the October 7 attack, the day the Hamas terrorist organization attacked Israel – Erdogan openly took a stand against Israel. He had previously accused this country of "fascism" and "war crimes".

The Middle East remains a controversial topic

Olaf Scholz had to listen to his guest describe Hamas as a "liberation organization" and define Germany as having a "psychology of guilt" towards Israel.

Scholz remained calm. Too quiet, as critics later judged. "It's no secret that we have different, sometimes very different perspectives on the current conflict," the chancellor replied. That's why we need to talk. "Especially in difficult moments, we need to speak directly to each other."

Germany and Turkey need each other

The two heads of government meet on Saturday (October 19) in Istanbul. Political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy is convinced that there is a lot to talk about. "Despite the opposing positions in the Middle East conflict, there are common interests between Ankara and Berlin in many other areas", analyzed the head of CATS when asked by DW. "At the end of the day, both sides need each other - politically, economically and socially."

A federal government spokesman cited migration, the war in Ukraine and economic policy issues as central topics on the negotiating table. Turkey played an important role in enabling grain supplies from Ukraine to the world market via the Black Sea. For weeks there has been talk of creating an international contact group to seek ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey will also be there.

On the other hand, the federal government has repeatedly emphasized that Turkey should be included in the European policy of sanctions against Russia. Expert Jens Bastian also thinks this is important. "This conditionality must also be clearly addressed by Chancellor Scholz if President Erdogan intends to modernize the customs union between the EU and Turkey."

Berlin-Ankara asylum agreement?

When it comes to migration, Scholz is sure to address the question of how more rejected Turkish asylum seekers can return to Turkey. When it comes to the countries of origin of asylum seekers, Turkey ranks third after Syria and Afghanistan.

Most of the rejections affect Kurds, says researcher Hürcan Asli Aksoy. "There is talk of an asylum agreement between Berlin and Ankara. Up to 500 people seeking protection may return per week." However, there is no official confirmation on this from the Turkish side. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser recently said of the returns from Germany that: "We are working on this and I am sure we will be able to report successes there in the coming weeks."

According to political scientist Jens Bastian, the refugee deal that the EU concluded with Ankara in March 2016 will no longer play a major role in the future. Basically, according to her, asylum seekers who arrived in Greece irregularly through Turkey could be returned to Turkey. The EU has now paid Ankara almost ten billion euros to take care of refugees in Turkey. 3.6 million Syrian refugees live there. The numbers have currently fallen on the Greek border, a sign that Greece and Turkey are cooperating in this direction, according to Bastian.

Turkey will buy Eurofighter

A topic that will certainly play a role in the meeting between Scholz and Erdogan is the export of arms. Turkey wants to modernize its air force with 40 Eurofighter fighter jets. Since they are produced by Germany, Spain, Great Britain and Italy, all four countries must agree to buy them. So far only Spain and Great Britain have given the green light.

"Our NATO ally, Germany, must of course also take decisive steps forward, for example when we talk about armaments, industry and exports," Erdogan said in Berlin at the end of 2023. "This must be possible without obstacles". But Scholz refused this.

German arms exports to Turkey were sharply curtailed in 2019 following the Turkish military offensive in northern Syria. Meanwhile, the German government has deviated from its rather restrictive course. The well-known magazine "Spiegel" reports that arms shipments worth at least 236 million euros have been approved in September 2024. Politologist Hürcan Asli Aksoy thinks that Germany will now give the green light for the Eurofighter as well. "Now both governments seem to have come closer on many issues of arms policy, so that Turkey can get European fighter jets"./ DW


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