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US intelligence report: War would not topple Iranian regime

2026-03-07 17:07:24Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council estimates that even a large-scale US military offensive against Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic's regime.

According to the document, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with its contents, Iran's military and clerical establishment remains sufficiently consolidated to maintain continuity of power even in the event of a major military campaign.

The assessment comes at a time when President Donald Trump's administration has warned of the possibility of a prolonged military campaign against Iran, which officials have said has "just begun."

The report also raises doubts about Trump's stated plan to "cleanse" Iran's leadership structure and install a leader of his own choosing in power.

The document was completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched military operations on February 28 and analyzed several possible scenarios of power change in Iran.

According to the report, even in the event of a limited operation against Iranian leaders or a broader offensive against state institutions, regime structures would follow the procedures provided to guarantee the continuity of power.

In the event of the assassination of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian system would activate institutional mechanisms for the transfer of power within the existing political and military elite.

The report also considers it "impossible" for the fragmented Iranian opposition to take control of the country in such a scenario.

The National Intelligence Council is made up of senior analysts who draft strategic assessments based on information from 18 US intelligence agencies.


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

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