Russian wheat production in question, cause: High temperatures and April drought!

2024-05-04 12:45:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Russian wheat production in question, cause: High temperatures and April

Global wheat prices earlier this week retreated from multi-month highs due to the drought that prevailed in Russia. Although the rains started in this country, they were low and threaten to hamper the crops of the main exporter.

Cooler average temperatures are expected for southern Russia in the first half of May, after April's record heat, and this change could be "key" to avoiding significant crop losses amid an extremely dry spring.

Southern Russia, which owns more than 30% of the country's annual wheat crop, experienced its driest April in a decade, as rainfall was just a quarter of the month's normal.

Such a dry and warm April combination has not been observed in southern Russia in at least three decades. The most recent example was 2012, when the wheat yield marked the worst performance of the post-Soviet era.

Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon two weeks ago estimated wheat production in 2024 at 93 million tonnes, close to last year's levels. Crop losses in Russia could be a boon to other global wheat suppliers, although the alarm is not yet sounded, as Russia has recently exported record volumes. The country has doubled its wheat production over the past 20 years and now accounts for a fifth, or more, of all wheat exports.

Years ago, Russian wheat production had a reputation for being unpredictable due to volatile yield fluctuations, although results have been more stable and higher in recent years.


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