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Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger?

2022-09-25 20:37:11Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger?
Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger

Could there really be a nuclear attack that Putin warned about in his last speech? Is this real danger or just a verbal threat? How do things work in such cases?

Është retorika e hapur luftarake e një luftënxitësi të pamëshirshëm: “Unë dua të kujtoj ata që japin deklarata të tilla për Rusinë, mos harroni se vendi ynë ka edhe mjete të ndryshme shkatërrimi dhe ato janë më moderne se ato të vendeve të NATO-s. Nëse cënohet integriteti territorial i vendit tonë, ne sigurisht që do të përdorim të gjitha mjetet që kemi në dispozicion për të mbrojtur Rusinë dhe popullin tonë”.

Kështu u shpreh shefi i Kremlinit Vladimir Putin të martën. Presidenti rus akuzon Perëndimin për shantazh bërthamor. E ai nuk lë asnjë dyshim për vendosmërinë e tij: “Ky nuk është një bllof. Ata që përpiqen të na shantazhojnë me armë bërthamore, duhet ta dinë se gjërat mund të ndryshojnë dhe të kthehen në drejtimin e tyre”.

Përdorimi i armëve bërthamore – nuk është ndonjë kërcënim i ri i Putinit

On Tuesday, Putin also announced the partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists. But it also threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons. "Since the beginning of the war, we have constantly heard such threats," explains former colonel Wolfgang Richter in an interview for DW. He is an expert on security policies. "The idea behind it is probably to say that if you (the West) attack Russian territory, then a nuclear attack becomes more likely."

In an interview with the British BBC, Rose Gottemoeller does not rule out the possibility that Russia will indeed use nuclear weapons. The former deputy secretary general of NATO is worried: "I'm afraid that they will now respond in an unpredictable way." "They may respond in a way that may include the use of weapons of mass destruction," explains Gottemoeller.

Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger?

Security expert Richter does not see the situation as dramatic and refers to the Russian nuclear doctrine. It allows the use of nuclear weapons only in two cases: "First, if Russia itself is attacked by nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. And the second, if the existence and survival of the Russian state is endangered." According to Richter, none of these arguments hold up. In addition, the use of such weapons would also affect the "so-called brother people" of Ukrainians.

Russia, the largest nuclear power

With more than 6,300 nuclear warheads, Russia maintains the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Of the NATO partners, the US has the largest nuclear force with about 5,800 nuclear warheads. It is said that France has almost 300 nuclear warheads, Great Britain about 215. But there are no completely accurate figures, because many countries keep their data secret.

Even if there is talk of a "nuclear defensive shield" by the US, a nuclear attack in Europe cannot be prevented militarily. The "defensive shield" is based more on the assumption that an adversary would not dare attack NATO countries with nuclear weapons, because he would have to count on a counterattack.

Such a military response could be ordered and executed by any NATO nuclear power: the US, Britain and France. All three states have strategic nuclear weapons that can be fired from nuclear submarines, among others, and thus enable a counter-attack in any possible scenario.

Who decides on the use of nuclear weapons?

The American president decides first on the use of American nuclear weapons stored in Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands. It would allow the use of nuclear weapons, while the host country (eg Germany) would have to agree to the dropping of bombs by warplanes. Such a decision would likely be preceded by consultations with other NATO allies in the North Atlantic Council.

Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger?
The American president decides first on the use of American nuclear weapons deployed in Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands.

The French president himself decides on the use of French nuclear weapons. In the United Kingdom, decision-making power rests with the British Prime Minister. But the three decision-making centers on the use of nuclear weapons are considered only a deterrent, since they make it difficult for the enemy to calculate exactly how NATO would react in the event of an attack.

The role of Germany

Germany participates in nuclear deterrence in Europe with Tornado fighter jets stationed in Büchel, Rhineland-Palatinate. In an emergency, planes with a German crew would fly American nuclear weapons to the target. At least once a year, Bundeswehr pilots practice dropping American atomic bombs.

In addition to Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy participate in what is known as participation in NATO's nuclear arsenal. According to reports, between 100 and 150 certified bombs for these relatively inaccurate aircraft are currently stored in Europe.

Nuclear attack - just Putin's threat or real danger?

Nuclear attack: Threat or more?

Since Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, the Russian president has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. At that time, the use of so-called tactical nuclear weapons was probably possible. They have a relatively small explosive power. Such a nuclear attack would be about one-fiftieth the power of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.

But in an interview with DW, security expert Richter doubts that this could actually happen. "If there was a nuclear attack, Russia would be completely alone in the world. Putin would lose all allies, including China." Therefore, Richter considers a nuclear war between Russia and NATO impossible. "So much rationality there (in Putin) certainly still remains."

Putin probably also remembers a very clear statement by US President Joe Biden. In a televised interview with CBS a few days ago, US President Biden warned Vladimir Putin against using nuclear or chemical weapons: “Don't do it! Do not do it! Do not do it! This would change the face of war like nothing else since World War II."

Volker Witting, Frank Hofmann/DW

 

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