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Houthis in the Red Sea, aggressive and uncontrolled

2024-03-09 10:29:53Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Houthis in the Red Sea, aggressive and uncontrolled

Attacks on cargo ships, forced tours around the Cape of Good Hope, the first ship sunk - Yemen's Houthis put pressure on civilian transport. Now the US Central Command warns of an "ecological disaster". The cargo ship Rubimar, which was attacked by Houthi paramilitary formations in mid-February and sank in early March, caused an oil slick 29 kilometers long, the regional command responsible for the Middle East, East Africa and Asia said. Central.

Attacks thus acquired a new quality. Although a final assessment of the ecological damage is not yet possible, it cannot be ruled out that more than 7,000 barrels of oil and 22,000 tonnes of ammonium phosphate on board ended up in the waters, said maritime safety expert Ian Ralby.

This would have major consequences, for example for plants that supply the entire region with drinking water. Additionally, if the oil spill spreads, the amount of fish could decrease, Ralby said on his "Blue Security" podcast. This would have a major impact on local fisheries. Moreover, given the fast currents in the strait, he doesn't question the possibility that the stain will go even further.

"Twin Souls"

To counter the attack, the US formed the international military coalition "Operation Prosperity Guardian" in December last year. As part of this campaign, the German frigate Hessen is also on the scene. But despite the targeted shelling of Houthi positions, the alliance has still not been able to completely halt their attacks.

This is probably also because the Houthis are not fighting alone. Behind them is Iran, which is trying to present itself as a protective force for the Palestinians in the context of the war in Gaza. Iran's political leadership has repeatedly threatened Israel with destruction. "The Houthi agenda is anti-American and anti-Israel," says Fabian Hinz, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. "It is a very ideological Islamic movement that considers the fight against Israel as important as Iran." The partnership between Iran and the Yemeni militia works on this basis.

Middle East expert Michael Knight from the American institute "The Washington Institute" sees this issue similarly. The Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are "kindred spirits." This is why the Houthis "don't necessarily need to be told what to do" by Tehran.

Tehran's military support

The extent of Tehran's support became clear in late January this year, when US forces intercepted a shipment of military aid from Iran to the Houthis. According to a statement from the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), it contained intermediate-range ballistic missile components, explosives, components for unmanned underwater and surface vehicles, military communications and equipment, anti-tank missile assemblies and other military materials. "The current campaign in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden would not have been possible without Iranian help," says Fabian Hinz.

Consequences for the population of Yemen

However, the damage is not great only for international transport. The population of Yemen is also suffering from the consequences of the attack, which is suffering after years of war. After talks between Saudi Arabia -- the country that for years led the international coalition against the Houthis -- appeared to have led to an agreement last fall, they have now been blocked by attacks on the ships.

As a result, the Kingdom refused the humanitarian aid that had been promised. Rising transportation costs caused by the attacks are also putting heavy pressure on Yemen and its population. The country is particularly vulnerable to such events because it is almost entirely dependent on food imports. Aid delivery is limited by attacks. "That is why the effects of this crisis will be felt very strongly in Yemen," Hinz said.

In this regard, attacks on international shipping are dangerous for the Houthis domestically. A large part rejects their ideology, says Hinz. However, the war against Israel is still felt by a large part of the Yemeni population. "The Houthis in turn use this to present themselves as a legitimate resistance movement in the eyes of their followers," says Hinz.

Analysts of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, based in the Yemeni capital, see the same thing. "For the Houthis, this is a unique opportunity to use the widespread support for the Palestinian cause to boost their declining popularity in the areas they control, proving to the outside world that they are the only effective authority in Yemen." , the report says. December of last year.

However, it is debatable to what extent the increase in food prices will have a long-term effect on the anti-Israel attitude that is widespread in Yemen, says Fabian Hinz.

There is no prospect of an end to the attack

The Houthi movement can now be seen as "a kind of non-nuclear North Korea," writes Michael Knights of the American think tank in his analysis: "An aggressive, well-armed actor hostile to the United States, also in a key issue of geographical position".

Can their attacks on international shipping be limited? Fabian Hinz is skeptical. This also depends on the development of the war in Gaza. "It seems quite conceivable to me that the Houthis would reduce their mass attacks if the war ended. However, the Houthis are likely to see their attacks on civilian transport as a primary option. And this is unlikely to change even after the end potential of the war in Gaza". DW


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