Rumors of a purge, possible command changes, tensions: these are the aftershocks after Wagner's uprising.
The fate of Sergei Surovikin remains uncertain. According to the "Moscow Times" newspaper, he has been arrested, citing anonymous sources of the Ministry of Defense. Furthermore, the family has lost contact with him and his escort for more than three days.
The thesis, based on news coming from Moscow and American intelligence, points to a Surovikin in trouble.
In summary: he was always on good terms with Prigozhin, he knew in advance about the uprising, maybe he was part of the operation. There is much speculation about the video he recorded during Rostov's dramatic hours.
For some, they forced him, they point out that he is wearing a uniform without ranks (but it could be a simple precaution), they say that there is something "strange". Feeling and not certainty.
However, since yesterday there has been a lot of information - unconfirmed - about the arrest, with a possible transfer to the Lefortova prison.
The last circumstance denied by other sources. On the other hand, the Kremlin spokesman dismissed the American sources as rumours.
"Ballet" is fueled by those who want to profit to increase confusion and the objective difficulty of having a linear picture. As a former secret agent always said: "They don't lie, they say what they think is true."
The other front concerns the defense hierarchy, with several officers relieved of duty while the security services investigate to verify the loyalty of personnel at the critical stage.
Russian military bloggers claim that General Mikhail Teplinsky has taken command of operations in Ukraine, a further sign of decisive changes to regain control. But even this information is still general, it requires verification.
In the end, Evgeny Prigozhin. There are a number of "looks" on the main protagonist: he would still be negotiating; he would even travel to St. Petersburg; no one has an exact idea of how many mercenaries are ready to move to Belarus.
There is talk of eight thousand men being welcomed into a base under construction, but so far only a thousand have accepted.
Satellite photos showed the installations being carried out at the Asipovichy military site, about 80 miles from Minsk.
The Wall Street Journal wrote on Wednesday that Wagner's leadership failed because he was forced to act quickly, his opponents discovered his intentions, and he was unable to lead Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov into a trap. .
According to the newspaper, wiretapping, surveillance and spies have allowed both the Americans and the Russians to "know" more. Analysts who have followed Russia for years are struggling to put the pieces together.
One part has shown skepticism about Surovikin's total fall from grace, another is cautious and, even considering the critical stage, believes that part of the rumors are an attempt by the US to discredit a valuable officer.
A tactic to increase the regime's paranoia, always on the hunt for "traitors". Each hypothesis has a variant or two, with the inevitable reference to "manipulation", disguise and deception. As with other stories, it takes time to decipher the dynamics.