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Financial Times: Could there be an escalation of the wars?

2023-12-31 16:41:00Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Financial Times: Could there be an escalation of the wars?

The year 2023 is gone, but 2024 is seen as a year with many developments in terms of geopolitics. The " Financial Times " team , like every year, has made a prediction for what we should expect for the coming year.

- Will Donald Trump become the president of the USA again?

No. But — assuming the latest legal hurdles raised against Trump's stay in Colorado and Maine are overcome — this will be the ugliest presidential election in US history.

It will be a very close race. Trump will be criminally convicted in at least one of his four trials, possibly two, before the election and will present it as political persecution by the "Biden crime family." Although clearly aging, Biden will threaten, more so because a narrow majority will reject Trump rather than accept a second Biden term.

- Will 2024 surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record?

Yes. The year 2023 was marked by so many scorching heat extremes that it will likely turn out to be the hottest in the 174 years of climate records once the final numbers are tallied.

But many scientists expect 2024 to be even warmer because the heat of 2023 was boosted by the emergence of a naturally occurring El Nino climate pattern.

-Will the Israel-Hamas war cause a full regional conflict?

No. The war has fueled violence across the region involving Iranian-backed militant groups. The biggest concern is that border skirmishes between Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese movement, and Israeli forces spiral into a full-blown conflict between the two.

Benjamin Netanyahu's government has been clear that it can no longer live with Hezbollah fighters stationed on the Lebanon-Israel border, but the hope is that diplomatic pressure will contain the situation.

Neither Washington nor Tehran wants a wider regional conflict, even if fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensifies, but the situation is extremely volatile. Andrew England

- Will the US reach an economic normalization?

Yes, in the short term. Inflation has fallen in a way that has surprised even the Federal Reserve this year, and growth has remained stronger than most economists expected.

As consumer spending remains strong and wage growth (fairly) well contained, a mild slowdown could continue for several months. But don't bet it will last all of 2024. There will be less fiscal support as handouts to families from the Covid era have been used up. Higher interest rates are fueling bankruptcies, worries about the US debt are rising and geopolitical stresses are fracturing global trade. This could increase inflation and slow growth. So, within a year, sitting will probably become more painful.

- Will Keir Starmer become Prime Minister of Great Britain?

Yes, although it's possible the UK election won't happen until January 2025. Rishi Sunak's Conservatives look divided and exhausted.

The number of seats the Labor opposition needs to win means it could land somewhere between a minority government and the landslide that opinion polls are currently pointing to. But it is extremely difficult to see how the prime minister can get enough support to hold on to power.

-Will China's economic growth fall to 3 percent or less?

No. The quality of Chinese growth has certainly deteriorated significantly in recent years. The property market, which contributes almost a third of gross domestic product, is slowly imploding. Many local governments are drowning in debt. The Chinese consumer is confused.

But GDP growth in 2024 is still set to easily exceed 4 percent – ​​helped by a mix of debt bailouts, fiscal stimulus initiatives and other forms of official support. Advances in technology will remain strong.

-Will a Chinese attack cause a change of president in Taiwan?

No. Many people inside and outside Taiwan worry more about war these days, thanks to China's expanding military maneuvers. The front-runner in January's presidential election, Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, also has a very different background from incumbent Tsai Ing-wen.

But Lai has been clear that he would follow Tsai's cautious stance on China policy – ​​leaving Beijing with no pretext for an attack. The Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping still appears to believe, too, that it has a chance to force Taiwan to reunify without a fight — increasing military intimidation, political infiltration, economic lures and international isolation.

- Will the USA and the EU continue to finance Ukraine?

Yes. As Ukraine's counteroffensive against the Russian invasion stalled in late 2023, military and financial support for Kiev became a contentious issue on both sides of the Atlantic. The Biden administration is determined to keep supplies flowing: a deal with Republicans in Congress could include concessions on US border security in exchange for extended aid to Ukraine.

A bigger challenge will arise if Donald Trump returns to the presidency. EU leaders, meanwhile, must find ways in early 2024 to override Hungary's veto of a 50 billion euro bailout package. But Ukraine is still likely to struggle to make a military breakthrough, so it will be under increasing pressure to negotiate with Moscow.

- Will Ursula von der Leyen secure a second term as president of the European Commission?

Yes, with a little effort. Ursula von der Leyen has acquitted herself well in a crisis-ridden mandate, proving the value of EU joint action on borrowing, health, defense spending and energy policy. Its flagship European green deal has largely stayed on track.

But her habit of crafting policies over capitals and close alignment with Washington have irked some leaders. Her 2019 coalition is at risk from the gains of the populist right in the European Parliament elections. But her centre-right EPP party is in pole position to retain the presidency, even if it means closer cooperation with Eurosceptic parties. And, at the moment, no one looks like a stronger EPP candidate.

Yes. Elon Musk often uses warnings of bankruptcy to motivate; he did it at Tesla and SpaceX. But this time, with the decline of X's ad cuts and efforts to create new revenue streams, there's a good chance it will.

After recent emotional outbursts against X's advertisers, he may be foolhardy enough to think he can ride it through bankruptcy and still come out on top. Musk fighting for control of bankrupt X would be a fascinating follow-up to the drama-filled acquisition on Twitter.


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

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