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What will happen in 2023: Predictions from some of the world's top experts

2023-01-04 23:40:53Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
What will happen in 2023: Predictions from some of the world's top experts
What will happen in 2023

Some of the predictions for the world in the year that has just started, from some of the best experts of the British Financial Times

Will there be a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine?

No. The conditions for a lasting ceasefire, let alone a formal peace settlement, are unlikely to be met in 2023. Freezing the current positions would satisfy neither Russia nor Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's Kremlin will not have broken Ukraine's independence, or even fully control the four regions it "annexed" in September. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cannot accept a ceasefire leaving Ukraine without territory lost since Russia's invasion in February, except for Donbass and Crimea seized in 2014. Regaining that territory would require weaponry that the West appears unwilling to do. give Russia is trying to regroup and prepare its people for a long war. It will most likely be an ongoing and bitter conflict.

Tony Barber

Will there be blackouts in Europe?

Yes. It could happen before April if the weather is cold enough, but the coming winter is the biggest challenge. Although gas storage sites are now almost full, refilling them in the spring will be difficult.

In 2022, Russian gas flows were largely intact through June; in 2023 they will be close to zero. Liquefied natural gas will struggle to cover the shortfall. Offsetting the risk is Europe's shift back from gas to coal. France's nuclear plants should have fewer maintenance problems. But the energy system has been strained for 18 months. The risk of something breaking is increasing.

David Sheppard

Will the global temperature temporarily reach the 1.5 degree C warming threshold?

No, but it could happen as early as 2024. The planet has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees C, comparing average temperatures in 2011-2020 with the late 1800s, and by at least 1.2 degrees C in recent years. With emissions at record levels, scientists put the odds at 50:50 of temporarily reaching 1.5C in at least one year in the 2022-2026 period.

With cooling La Nina weather patterns expected to last until early 2023, forecasters think the year-round temperature will average 1.2C, but this could change in the coming years. A year of 1.5 degrees C would not mean that the goal of the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it would bring the world much closer.

Filita Clark

Will Joe Biden run for president again ?

Yes. There is nothing to be done about the president's age; Biden will be 81 by the 2024 election and 82 when the 2025 inauguration takes place. But don't rule out a run. After a difficult year of legislation and a better-than-expected performance by Democrats in the midterm elections, Biden is probably still the Democrats' best chance to hold the White House; Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to create a profile. That doesn't mean other Democrats aren't exploring the possibility of a 2024 run. 

Courtney Weaver

Will Donald Trump be sued?

Yes. There are at least four areas of potential investigative risk for the former president: Trump's attempt to swing the 2020 election, his holding of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, his pressure on Georgia officials to find "the votes of missing" and management through fraud of the Trump Organization. The first two are in the hands of Jack Smith, the special counsel appointed in November, who has subpoenaed officials in seven states. Based on what is already public information, prosecutors in at least one of those investigations will likely deem there is enough evidence for an indictment — which Trump will no doubt deny and challenge at trial.

Eduard Luce

Can China restore economic growth to more than 5 percent?

Yes. China faced a bleak end to 2022; moving away from its "zero-Covid" policy will unfortunately take many more lives and overwhelm hospitals, as the pandemic did elsewhere in 2020-21. But many things can and will change during the year. Once China learns to "live with Covid", economic activity should return strongly. Consumer spending will be bolstered by a pandemic-fueled savings glut and Beijing will launch a stimulus package focused on infrastructure.

James Kynge

Will Beijing conquer or blockade Taiwan?

No. Xi Jinping may one day decide to attack or blockade Taiwan – but probably not in 2023. An invasion would be a colossal gamble. If it goes wrong, Xi could start a war with the US, lose power and permanently damage China's prospects. A blockade is much more likely: it would put enormous pressure on Taiwan to bend and challenge the US to act first. But even this will bring great risks. Xi is unlikely to roll the dice unless he is convinced that Taiwan is steadily slipping out of his hands. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election could be the next flashpoint.

Gideon Rachman

Will the era of Erdogan come to an end in Turkey's June elections?

No. Recep Tayyip Erdogan will unleash a barrage of methods, fair and foul, to stay in power despite his declining popularity. Extending Erdogan's rule into a third decade will have dire consequences for Turkey's economy, exacerbate a decline in living standards and further curtail personal freedoms. It is not known whether a prison sentence and political ban handed down last month to his most reliable rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, could create a backlash and galvanize the opposition.

Laura Pitel

Will the protests in Iran end?

No. Months of demonstrations by Iranian protesters, many of them women, were sparked by the killing of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody. They have expanded into calls to replace theocracy with a democratic system. Their rate has fallen; if they escalate again, the Islamic regime may strike even harder. But with the economy struggling under Western sanctions, the protests have shown a resilience that underscores the anger and frustration of many Iranians. This will ensure that, whatever the authorities do, protests in some form are likely to continue.

Andrew England

Will Twitter survive?

Yes. Elon Musk's $44 billion acquisition has been chaotic, but the platform will move forward. Users will not leave. Alternatives such as Mastodon lack size. However, losses will increase. A Musk-friendly CEO will be appointed, but advertisers will remain wary, and 100 million new $8 subscriptions would be needed just to cover the debt's interest payments. Musk will buy Twitter's debt to ease financial pressure. However, his obsession with "free speech" will put him on a collision course with the EU's Digital Services Act. A ban is unlikely, but hefty fines could be on the horizon.

Tony Barber

Will another big cryptocurrency business fail ?

Yes. The ferocity of the “crypto winter” of 2022 means that many of the obvious weak links have already collapsed and some scams have been exposed. But there will be even more casualties next year – and possibly some big ones – as chastened venture capital firms and retail traders continue to pull back and deprive the crypto industry of the fuel it depends on for growth: the players in the table.

Robin Wigglesworth

Will any of the big streaming platforms be sold or merged?

No, not this year. Consolidation is inevitable in the entertainment industry as streaming becomes dominant. Speculation abounds about mergers: NBC Universal and Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney with Apple, Netflix with a tech giant willing to pay more. Warner will probably be the first domino to fall given its financial woes. But when AT&T sold Warner in 2022, it was through a structure that limits deals to several years. That means the big shock is more likely to come in 2024, the year many broadcasters claim they will finally be turning a profit.

Alex Barker

With abbreviations from Financial Times - Bota.al


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