Report/ Basic food prices may rise until 2030

The pandemic, rising interest rates and geopolitical conflicts have resulted in a dramatic increase in the price of many food products in the UK, including olive oil, baked beans and granulated white sugar. A new study has outlined where prices could go over the next few years.

Which products are expected to be the most expensive by 2030?

According to online shopping platform BravoVoucher, by 2030, olive oil is expected to be one of the most affected products. Its price has increased by 113.8% between 2019 and 2024 (to £8.04 by March 2024) for a 1 liter 500ml bottle. Now, BravoVoucher estimates that unless inflation slows, olive oil prices could potentially rise to around £17.19 by 2030. However, if inflation manages to ease to 2% by the end of the decade, olive oil prices of olives may rise at a relatively gentler pace, touching almost 9.05 pounds by 2030.

Olive oil prices are still heavily impacted by the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, largely due to the resulting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on containers and cargo ships causing significant disruptions to oil supply routes and stocks. in the UK as well as worldwide.

Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia are some of the largest olive oil producers in the world. However, rising temperatures across Europe, particularly southern Europe, leading to droughts, poor rainfall and a warmer than expected 2023-2024 winter have all contributed to poor olive harvests recently . This has also gone a long way in keeping olive oil prices consistently high.

Bean prices have also increased by 70.5% between 2019 and 2024, to £1.04 per 400-425g tin. However, there could be more to come, with the breakfast favorite set to rise to around £1.17 by 2030, and that's if plans to reduce inflation go well. If not, consumers may have to pay around £1.77 per can.

Baked bean prices have risen in large part over the past two years as manufacturers such as Heinz have raised prices to boost unit profitability, in a move some critics have denounced as fueling 'greed'. Similar to thrift, greed occurs when corporations or businesses keep product prices high on purpose, even in a cost-of-living or high-inflation scenario, in order to maximize profits.

Another key ingredient, granulated white sugar, could also become much more expensive down the line, with prices already rising to £1.19 per kg in March 2024, an increase of 67.6%. By 2030, if UK inflation falls to 2%, granulated white sugar could see a slight rise to around £1.34, however if not, a kilo could cost £1.99 by then .

Sugar prices have largely seen increases recently due to producers facing higher energy bills, with the production of sugar cane, especially for products such as ethanol, sugar and molasses being a particularly energy intensive process. Additionally, higher fertilizer costs and poor harvests in major sugar producing countries such as India due to drought and unseasonal rainfall have also put pressure on prices.

This has also affected other products such as cookies, chocolates and other sweets, for which sugar and sugar products are a key component.

Unaltered mineral water could also be left out of some shopping baskets in 2030 if inflation continues, as by then prices could reach around £1.74 a bottle. In a more optimistic inflation scenario, prices could be closer to £1.17, a slight increase from £1.04 per bottle in 2024. Mineral water has already seen a price increase of 67.7% over five years last.

Bottled water prices have been on the rise recently due to rising oil and chemical prices. This is because water treatment plants require significant amounts of fuel and chemicals, such as activated carbon, aluminum sulfate, and ammonia, among others, to process the water.

However, the role of fuel in the production of bottled water is not limited to the main water treatment activities. A significant amount of oil is also required to produce plastic bottles. Due to the increase in the prices of gasoline and diesel, the costs of transportation have also increased, causing all these cost burdens to be passed on to consumers.

Similarly, plain biscuits could also quickly become unaffordable for many people, predicted to cost around £1.52 per 200-300g pack in 2030 if inflation is on track, but roughly 2, £25 per pack if not. This is mainly due to the rising cost of ingredients such as sugar and flour. Consumers could also see corn become more expensive as semi-skimmed milk prices are expected to rise to around £1.83 for two pints by 2030 if inflation is not brought under control. If prices fall, two pints are likely to cost £1.40.

You could also have to pay anywhere between £9.85 and £11.10 by the end of the decade for your choice of cheese, depending on how inflation goes. Fresh, chilled whole chicken is also expected to become more expensive, by £5.31 per kg if inflation stays as it is now. If not, a kg can cost £4.31. Furthermore, broccoli could see a significant price increase to £3.32 per kg by 2030, from £2.50 per kg in 2024, if inflation does not ease. If so, a kg of broccoli is likely to be around £2.82.

Parents may also have to fork out for powdered baby formula, with a pack expected to cost between £13.44 and £14.97 by the end of the decade. The latest report was based on an earlier study using data from the Office for National Statistics, where the platform looked at food price inflation for key items from 2019 to 2024.

The 2030 projections were split into two sets of projections, one where UK inflation returns to the Bank of England's 2% target by 2030, and the other is likely to apply if inflation stays the same as it is now and does not sit down