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India, rising world power, overtakes China to become third largest economy in 2030

2024-01-12 11:09:48Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

India, rising world power, overtakes China to become third largest economy in

A few months ago, the news that India's population had surpassed that of China led some economists and businessmen to speak of the 'Indian century', as they regarded this development as an upheaval of great geopolitical significance.

Undoubtedly, the development predicts further spectacular growth, thanks also to the composition of India's population of 1.4 billion, with an overwhelming 80% under the age of 50. Even if the expectation of an Indian century turns out to be exaggerated, 2023 could certainly be called 'the year of India', as its population numbers were not the only big change in the world's fifth largest economy.

India's transformation into a rising world power was confirmed in late August by the successful landing of its spacecraft on the moon, putting it in the international spotlight, boosting the confidence of the Indian people and giving it a position of unprecedented among the current and former superpowers, the US, China and the former Soviet Union, which of course had achieved the same feat much earlier. At the same time, its growth coincides with China's slowdown, but also with geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington, which is why it attracts investors around the world. After all, it is the only one that can be a credible alternative to China, as it has a workforce and domestic market comparable in size to China, Western governments see it as their partner, and the Modi government is trying create a business-friendly environment.

Its growth rates are already outpacing Asia's economic giant and the world's second-largest economy, China, which is slowing this year, defying expectations for a rapid recovery in 2023.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Indian economy has averaged an annual growth rate of 6% to 7%, while China is struggling to meet its 5% target.

Many economists consider it likely to register a growth rate close to 7%. The IMF even predicts that India will continue to grow at high rates for at least another five years, while all forecasts converge on the estimate that by 2050 its economy will be the same as that of the US. Since last year, it has displaced Britain and taken its place as the fifth largest economy on the planet. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that the fast-growing Asian country would overtake not only Japan and Germany but also the US, while S&P Global and Morgan Stanley had predicted that India would become the third-largest economy by 2030. Now Goldman Sachs estimates that India will emerge as the world's second largest economic power by 2075.

India manages to attract business giants like Apple, which in early December announced it would manufacture at least 50 million iPhones a year in India over the next two to three years. If all goes according to plan, then India will soon account for 25% of global iPhone production.


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