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Putin likes his worst option in Ukraine

2026-07-19 20:49:31Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA CARL BILDT

If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to make a sober assessment of the state of his war with Ukraine, he would be calling for a ceasefire. But it seems his mind is not clear, because all signs point to him pursuing some kind of escalation. If he does indeed embark on such a path, he will make the situation worse for everyone, but mostly for himself.

Since his August 2025 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Putin has sought to persuade the United States to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a deal that would leave Russia in control of the areas it has already stolen—just under 20% of Ukraine's territory—as well as handing over a small piece of the Donetsk region that Ukraine still holds.

It is worth remembering that before the Anchorage meeting, Trump had the support of Ukraine and the Europeans in seeking an immediate ceasefire. But after speaking with Putin, he suddenly abandoned his efforts for a ceasefire and instead accepted Putin’s demand for Donetsk. The Europeans naturally rushed to protect Zelensky from the pressure that Putin and Trump would try to exert on him, and political talks to stop the fighting stalled. It was Trump—again deceived by Putin—who prolonged the war.

The area in question has no economic significance, but it is important for Ukraine’s defense, and it carries symbolic weight for Putin, who changed the Russian constitution in 2022 to claim Donetsk as part of Russia. Therefore, the idea that Ukraine would surrender its positions is unacceptable. Over the past year and a half, the Russian military has suffered a gradual loss of capabilities, reflected in the decline in the quality of Russian troops, while Ukraine’s technological capabilities on the battlefield have improved significantly. As a result, the war front has turned into a “death zone” that moves with difficulty.

Of course, Putin still seems to believe that his forces can take full control of Donetsk, and his generals still fear the consequences if they tell him that it can’t be done. But the odds are clearly stacked against him. Putin also believes that hitting civilian population centers and critical infrastructure could force Ukraine into surrender. But while he is undoubtedly inflicting great pain, aerial bombardment alone has never won a war, and that will not change in Ukraine. Over the past few months, Ukraine has expanded its medium- and long-range drone attacks on Russia, disabling a significant portion of its refinery capacity and causing a politically painful fuel crisis throughout Russia. Ukraine will only continue to intensify these attacks.

But the real game-changer may be Ukraine’s attempt to sever the supply chains connecting Crimea to Russia. The Ukrainians have been relentlessly attacking freight trucks traveling through the occupied land corridor in eastern Ukraine, the bridge and ferries crossing the Kerch Strait, and ships trying to deliver supplies across the Sea of ??Azov. This campaign has already complicated matters for the Kremlin, and could prove politically disastrous if Russian control of Crimea is seriously challenged. At that point, even freezing the conflict in the existing “dead zone” may no longer be an option.

Apart from Putin, few in Russia are likely to care deeply about the fragmentation of Donetsk that is now blocking the political process. But many people—rightly or wrongly—are interested in Crimea. Indeed, it was Putin’s seizure of the peninsula in March 2014 that boosted his popularity and paved the way for his full-scale occupation in 2022.

However, the goal of the 2022 invasion — the subjugation of all of Ukraine militarily and politically — is unattainable, which means that Putin has already failed. Whether his grip on power can withstand a ceasefire in which he accepts that outcome remains an open question. But he likely cannot survive a scenario in which he loses control of Crimea.

So Putin, if he were rational, would forget about Anchorage and accept a ceasefire now. If he continues on his current path, he is unlikely to get the small piece of Donetsk he wants, but he is very likely to lose control of Crimea. Moreover, opinion polls suggest that a large majority of Russians support ending the war.

A ceasefire would undoubtedly end the conflict. A long-term political solution would still be a long way off. But it would at least bring the conflict to the political arena, encourage change within Russia and Ukraine, and allow for diplomacy with more external actors. Unfortunately, Putin seems determined to stay on his current downward course.

Project Syndicate


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