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Why Assad's fall is a blow to Russia's prestige

2024-12-09 22:10:32Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why Assad's fall is a blow to Russia's prestige
Assad and Putin

By Steve Rosenberg – BBC Russia Editor

For nearly a decade, it was Russian military might that had kept Bashar al-Assad in power. Until the extraordinary events of the last 24 hours.

Damascus has fallen, the Syrian president has been overthrown and flown to Moscow.

Citing a Kremlin source, Russian news agencies and state television reported that Russia has granted Assad and his family asylum "on humanitarian grounds."

In a matter of days, the Kremlin's project for Syria has unraveled in the most dramatic circumstances, with Moscow powerless to prevent it.

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Moscow was "following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern."

The fall of the Assad regime is a blow to Russia's prestige.

By sending thousands of troops in 2015 to support President Assad, one of Russia's main objectives had been to assert itself as a global power.

It was Vladimir Putin's first major challenge to Western power and dominance, away from the former Soviet space.

And successful it seemed. In 2017, President Putin visited the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria and declared the mission accomplished.

Despite regular reports that Russian airstrikes were causing civilian casualties, the Russian defense ministry felt confident enough to fly international media to Syria to witness the Russian military operation.

On one such trip, I remember an officer telling me that Russia was in Syria to stay “for a long time.”

But this was about more than just prestige.

In exchange for military aid, Syrian authorities granted Russia a 49-year lease for the air base in Hmeimim and the naval base in Tartous.

Russia had secured an important foothold in the eastern Mediterranean. The bases became important hubs for the transfer of military contractors in and out of Africa.

A key question for Moscow: what will happen to those Russian bases now?

(Russian bases in Syria)

The statement announcing Assad's arrival in Moscow also mentions that Russian officials were in contact with representatives of the "Syrian armed opposition."

The state television presenter said that opposition leaders had guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on Syrian territory.

Russia's Foreign Ministry says bases in Syria have been put on "high alert," but claims there is "no serious threat to them at the moment."

Bashar al-Assad was Russia's staunchest ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had invested heavily in him. Russian authorities will struggle to portray his overthrow as nothing more than a setback for Moscow.

Still, they are trying… and looking for scapegoats.

On Sunday night, Russian state television's main weekly news program attacked the Syrian army, apparently blaming it for failing to confront the rebels.

"Everyone could see that the situation was becoming increasingly dramatic for the Syrian authorities," said anchor Yevgeny Kiselev.

“But in Aleppo, for example, the positions were surrendered practically without a fight. The fortified areas were surrendered one after another and then blown up, despite the fact that [government troops] were better equipped and were many times larger than the attacking side. It’s a mystery!”

The presenter claimed that Russia had "always hoped for reconciliation [between the various parties] in Syria."

Then his final point:

"Of course we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria. But our priority is Russia's own security, what is happening in the area of ​​the Special Military Operation [Russia's war in Ukraine]."

There is a clear message here for the Russian public.

Despite nine years of Russia pouring resources into keeping Bashar al-Assad in power, the Russians are told they have more important things to worry about.

 


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