Corruption even in times of war/ Ukrainians disappointed with resistance hero, Zelensky risks leaving in May

By Owen Matthews - The Spectator

Perhaps all political careers inevitably end in failure one day. But few politicians have had careers as meteoric, as surprising, or as heroic as that of Ukraine's current president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Within the past 5 years, he transformed from a television comedian who achieved the deepest presidential election victory in his country's history, to an inspiring wartime leader who greatly impressed the world with his determination and personal bravery.

But now that the war has entered its third (and perhaps final) winter, Zelensky’s extraordinary story as Ukraine’s leader has reached its final chapter. After 1,000 days of defying not only Russian aggression but also the grim reality on the ground, Zelensky finally conceded last week that the effort to liberate territories occupied by Russia could be abandoned in exchange for rapid NATO membership.

And given that NATO membership is still distant for Kiev, what Zelensky was actually accepting was the inevitability of losing part of the national territory, within the framework of a negotiation brokered by new President Donald Trump with the Kremlin.

It is up to future historians to assess, and for the Ukrainian people to debate, what Zelensky could have done differently to achieve a better outcome. But what is becoming abundantly clear is that, rightly or wrongly, Ukrainian voters blame Zelensky for the failures of this war, and therefore do not want him to play any role in the country’s future.

Recent polls show that only 22 percent of Ukrainians would vote to re-elect Zelensky for a second term (only 16 percent would call him their first choice). According to a poll conducted last month by the Center for Social Monitoring in Kyiv, about 60 percent would prefer Zelensky to leave the position he currently holds.

Leading the polls is General Valerii Zaluzhny - whom Zelensky dismissed from the post of chief of the general staff in February of this year, sidelining him through his appointment as ambassador to London - whose support in the presidential election is 42 percent.

Third in the race is the enigmatic and ruthless head of Ukraine's military intelligence, General Kyrylo Budanov, with 18 percent. Officially, Zelensky's five-year presidential term ended on May 20 of this year. But in practice, there will be no campaign or vote while the war with Russia continues.

Meanwhile, Zelensky and his team will continue to govern directly through wartime powers that bypass parliament and, most importantly, suspend the activity of all non-state media. Despite the restrictions on reporting, a steady stream of shocking stories about corruption has fueled voter anger.

70 percent of them are convinced that the government is profiting from the war. Independent online portals, from Zerkalo Nedeli, Ukrainskaya Pravda and Nashi Groshi - a site that mainly deals with tracking corruption in military procurement - have uncovered cases of health officials and doctors earning millions by issuing fake medical certificates to deserters, or lucrative government tender contracts going to friends of ministers, etc.

Last year, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov was fired six months after it was revealed that he had overpaid for food and equipment for the military. Last month, the head of an agency tasked with building British-designed bunkers for Ukraine's electricity substations to protect them from Russian attacks resigned.

He accused members of Zelensky’s government of deliberately blocking funds and demanding bribes. Another major source of public anger is the ongoing debate over forced conscription. The lack of enough troops on the front lines has forced authorities to take increasingly violent measures to catch those who evade conscription. Videos of these violent actions appear daily on Ukrainian social media. There are raids on concerts and nightclubs, and young people are kicked and dragged into vans.

In many of these videos, bystanders are shown either helping the escapees or chanting: “Shame! Shame!” Up to 80 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged, as has a portion of industrial facilities. The economy has shrunk by over 30 percent of GDP.

International donations — $6.1 billion in November, for example — are paying the bulk of the salaries of teachers, doctors, nurses and government officials. This year, Zelensky’s government was forced to suspend special benefits for millions of internally displaced people from the Russian-occupied east.

As a result, thousands of them have returned to their homes, most traveling in transit from Moscow due to the closure of all land borders. About 150,000 refugees apparently prefer Russian rule to poverty and exile within Ukraine.

Petr Andriushchenko, an advisor to the former mayor of Mariupol, said about a third of the city's population, now occupied by Russia, has already returned to their homes. "Many regions in Ukraine are not friendly to internally displaced persons," Andriushchenko stressed.

Especially since the refugees from the east are mostly Russian-speaking, something that is increasingly not tolerated in many of the western parts of the country. But the main source of dissatisfaction with Zelensky remains the terrible human cost of the war. Ukraine's civilian and military casualties are a state secret.

But civil society groups such as Mediazona, Meduza, Book of Memory and the UA Losses project have documented by name the deaths of some 60,435 Ukrainians, including civilians, as of November 6 of this year. The full number is likely much higher.

Zelensky's latest domestic battle is to resist calls - including in the US - to lower the minimum age of conscription from 25 to 18. Refusing to draft 18-year-olds will only add to Zelensky's unpopularity.

One thing is certain: once the date for new elections is announced, there will be no shortage of reasons for his removal from power. Many nationalist Ukrainians will blame Zelensky for any kind of compromise he reaches with Vladimir Putin. They will want to fight.

Meanwhile, other Ukrainians will blame the president for not reaching a deal with the Kremlin at the outset of the war. They will also blame the West, which forced Ukraine to fight instead of reaching a deal. The final tragedy of his political career will be to sign off on the partition of a country that he worked so hard to keep intact. Yet in many ways, which are actually the most important, Zelensky will emerge victorious. Eighty percent of Ukraine will emerge independent of Russian domination, and free to rebuild itself as a prosperous European democracy. But that will be someone else’s job. If Ukraine is very lucky, it may find another leader with the strength, the charisma of Volodymyr Zelensky’s caliber.