ANALYSIS: Merz and Macron, the Franco-German couple condemned to do better

Choosing France for his first official visit, Friedrich Merz, the future head of the German government (CDU), will try tomorrow with Emmanuel Macron to revive a bilateral relationship that has been shaky recently, with the common interest of a Europe in search of power.

He has Huguenot ancestors and one of his grandfathers was named Savigny, which means the chancellor has close personal ties to France and belongs to a generation for which Franco-German relations are essential.

French President Emmanuel Macron will welcome him as a friend.

On the eve of the German election, he invited him to Paris, where they discussed for more than three hours the general outlines of their future cooperation. The two men also met in Berlin, even before Merz took office. And the future foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, has already established contacts in Paris.

"Wednesday is a working visit to relaunch the Franco-German agenda, with Chancellor Merz's desire to rediscover the Franco-German reflex expressed very clearly, included in the coalition contract," the Elysee Palace said.

"We need to find each other again or at least resolve the misunderstandings," he added.

 "Franco-German reflex" 

Because relations between Paris and Berlin have been notoriously cold in recent years. Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz have displayed contrasting temperaments, one omnipresent, the other silent.

And Paris barely concealed its impatience to turn a new page within a Franco-German couple historically essential to the European Union.

“There is a great expectation that Merz will embody the opposite of what Olaf Scholz stood for,” said Hélène Miard-Delacroix, a historian at Sorbonne University.

He said the outgoing chancellor was perceived in France as "reluctant and a little arrogant."

His successor at first glance seems closer to Emmanuel Macron.

His sudden relaxation of the golden rule of budgeting, particularly in favor of a colossal defense effort, and his critical outlook on transatlantic relations since the election of Donald Trump in Washington, were very well received in Paris.

"Merz has a Franco-German reflex. Even if there are disagreements, he will go and talk to France," notes Paul Maurice, secretary general of the Committee for the Study of Franco-German Relations (CERFA).

"But be careful not to fantasize too much," he warns.

"He remains a German politician in the German political system, with much more limited room for maneuver than the French president," Maurice added.

 More than two to tango 

"Merz and Macron are similar in style, but there are still big differences in content, especially on Eurobonds and the free trade agreement with Mercosur," notes SPD MP Nils Schmid.

The Élysée Palace, for its part, emphasizes the idea of ??"immediately creating this Franco-German dynamic that pushes others", and asks that the two powers "find the means to unite, and when they fail to do so, to contain their differences in such a way that the Franco-German engine plays its full role".

Therefore, the ambition is strong, as are the concrete obstacles.

"Closer ties, shared visions and a willingness to compromise are not enough to keep the Franco-German engine running," warns Sébastien Maillard of the British organization Chatham House.

"Among the powerful driving factors, both leaders are under political pressure: Macron's term ends in two years, while Merz is eager to show that Germany is back in Europe," he adds, yet he is convinced that "the European Union can hardly afford for its two main members to lack momentum at such a critical moment for the fate of European integration."

In this regard, bilateral relations cannot be exclusive. On the way from Paris, the German Chancellor will pass through Warsaw.

And Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected in France on Friday to sign a bilateral treaty billed as unprecedented.

Of course, Franco-German friendship will have to allow other partners to enter against a backdrop of Russian threats.

"The Franco-German engine can no longer claim to supply energy to the entire EU. In the current EU of 27 members, it takes more than two people to dance the tango," notes Sébastien Maillard.

"More and more, the duo is becoming a trio with Poland," he emphasizes.